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Start your day with a myFT Daily Digest email that brings you the latest news on Climate change. According to a new peer-reviewed scientific analysis, the ocean circulation in the north Atlantic, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), is likely to collapse sooner than anticipated due to climate change. This collapse would have significant impacts on global weather patterns. The study, conducted by researchers from the University of Copenhagen, predicts that Amoc will shut down sometime between 2025 and 2095, with the 2050s being the most likely timeframe.
This prediction, backed with 95% confidence, contradicts the view of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which believes that Amoc is unlikely to collapse in this century. However, not all scientists are convinced by the Copenhagen researchers’ findings and still adhere to the IPCC’s predictions.
If Amoc were to collapse, it would lead to a cooling effect in the northern hemisphere, resulting in stormier winters and drier summers in Europe. Conversely, regions further south would experience intensified heat as less warmth is transferred to temperate and polar latitudes. Additionally, tropical rainfall and monsoons would undergo significant changes.
The potential collapse of Amoc is one of the most concerning “tipping points” caused by global warming, representing irreversible changes to the planet. The lead author of the study, Peter Ditlevsen, expressed surprise at the early timing of the tipping point, noting that the IPCC models were too conservative and did not consider recent reports of early warning signals of instability.
Other climate scientists, such as Stefan Rahmstorf from Potsdam University and Tim Lenton from Exeter University, support the findings, agreeing that Amoc’s tipping point may be closer than previously believed. However, there are still skeptics who question the data and analytical methods used by the Copenhagen researchers.
Geological records indicate that during the last ice ages, Atlantic circulation underwent drastic changes within a span of a decade or two. However, modern climate models suggest that under 21st-century conditions, the halt of Amoc may take about a century. Nevertheless, even a partial shutdown would worsen the disruption caused by global warming.
In addition to Amoc’s potential collapse, other concerning effects of global warming in the oceans include record-high sea surface temperatures in temperate regions of the northern hemisphere and record-low winter sea ice around Antarctica. However, these manifestations are not directly linked to changes in Amoc.
The Ditlevsens, who partnered on this research, emphasize the urgency of global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in light of their findings. However, Susanne Ditlevsen expresses skepticism about the possibility of reversing the collapse unless there is a drastic change in political views worldwide.
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