The fate of a critical agreement that was established last year to address global food shortages is uncertain as Russian President Vladimir Putin, the United Nations, and the European Union face a deadlock. The Black Sea grain deal, allowing the use of Ukrainian ports for food grain shipments and enabling the export of Russian food and fertilizers during the ongoing war, is set to expire on Monday. This deal was brokered by Turkey and the United Nations and facilitated the shipment of 32.8 million metric tons of grain from Ukraine, with over half going to developing nations worldwide, after Russia’s invasion disrupted the supply chain. Ukraine and Russia are both major food grain suppliers to many countries in Africa and western Asia, and concerns of a global food crisis resurfaced as the deadline approaches. Putin has expressed that Russia may withdraw from the deal if other parties fail to meet their obligations. Moscow has continuously threatened to block the extension due to issues relating to its own exports. Putin stated that Russia is in contact with the United Nations on this matter but has yet to receive a message proposing a compromise to salvage the deal. Additionally, Putin has requested concessions from the European Union regarding the SWIFT international payment system and a Russian agricultural bank, which the EU has been hesitant to grant. The expiration of the deal would also put the World Food Program’s aid programs in jeopardy, which support at-risk countries such as Ethiopia, Somalia, and Afghanistan. The COVID-19 pandemic has already pushed food-insecure individuals to the brink worldwide. According to the UN’s annual State of Food Security and Nutrition report, approximately 725 million people faced chronic hunger in 2022, a significant increase from 613 million in 2019. The conflict in Ukraine has necessitated updated projections on global hunger, which indicate that nearly 600 million people will experience chronic undernourishment by 2030, which is approximately 119 million more than if neither the pandemic nor the war had occurred. If the deal is not extended, countries that rely on Ukraine for food imports will have to seek alternative sources, potentially turning to Russia. Caitlin Welsh, the director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggests that this may have been Russia’s intention all along. Efforts are underway worldwide to save the deal before the deadline. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has sent a letter to Putin urging an extension. Stephane Dujarric, the spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, stated that the objective is to address financial obstacles through the Russian Agricultural Bank while ensuring the continuous flow of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claims to be unaware of any new proposals regarding the Black Sea grain deal. Lavrov did mention working with Turkey to ensure Russian grain exports continue regardless of the deal. Moscow’s primary demand is the reconnection of the Russian agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT international payment network. The EU cut off this connection in June 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although the EU previously stated that it would not reinstate Russian banks, there are reports that the EU is considering connecting a subsidiary of Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT specifically for grain and fertilizer transactions. The primary concern for the UN Secretary-General is the vulnerable people who will be most affected by any unraveling of the Istanbul arrangements and the subsequent rise in global food and fertilizer prices.
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