U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is heading to Beijing this weekend, but experts don’t have high hopes for significant progress in resolving the numerous disputes between the U.S. and China. However, analysts believe that this meeting could demonstrate that the world’s most important bilateral relationship is not on the brink of collapse. Blinken plans to hold meetings in China on June 18-19 and may even have a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This will make him the highest-ranking U.S. government official to visit China since President Biden took office in January 2021.
During a pre-trip briefing on Wednesday, U.S. officials expressed no expectations for a breakthrough in the U.S.-China relationship. This came after a tense phone call between Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang on Tuesday, during which Qin urged the U.S. to stop interfering in China’s affairs. On Friday, China’s foreign ministry also warned that engaging in “vicious competition” is not productive and that the United States should not perceive itself as dealing with China from a position of strength. The spokesperson emphasized that the U.S.’s behavior is pushing both countries toward confrontation.
Despite the low expectations for the outcome of Blinken’s visit, experts believe it is important for both sides to show the world that they are managing their relationship responsibly. China wants to demonstrate this particularly to the global south, while the U.S. aims to reassure its partners and allies. The visit could set the stage for future diplomatic engagements, including a meeting between President Xi and President Biden later this year. Andrew Small, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s Asia program, explains that going through the motions of diplomacy has value for both countries.
The bilateral ties between the U.S. and China have deteriorated across multiple fronts, raising concerns that the rivalry could escalate into conflict, particularly over Taiwan. China has been conducting military drills near the island, further exacerbating tensions. The two countries are also at odds over various issues, including trade, microchips, and human rights. China’s reluctance to engage in regular military-to-military talks with the U.S. has raised concerns among its neighboring countries. U.S. officials have prioritized establishing crisis communication channels to mitigate risks.
While Blinken’s main goal is to engage in candid and constructive discussions, breakthroughs are unlikely on major issues such as the flow of fentanyl precursors and the detention of Americans in China. A meeting between the two countries at a G20 summit last November briefly eased fears of a new Cold War, but high-level communication has since been rare. In response to what it perceives as the Biden administration’s weaponization of economic policies, China has been seeking to expand ties with European, Middle Eastern, and African countries. Chinese President Xi has recently hosted European leaders and aimed to court U.S. ally Saudi Arabia.
U.S. officials believe that Blinken’s visit will pave the way for future bilateral meetings in the coming months, potentially including trips by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. According to Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank, Beijing agreed to the visit because it is seen as an obstacle to other dialogues and visits by other U.S. cabinet members. These subsequent meetings could potentially lead to a meeting between the two countries’ leaders at the G20 meeting in India in September and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco in November.
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