The resurgence of smoke is upon us once again. Vast regions of America are currently enveloped in a hazardous haze that has drifted from Canada, where the country is facing its most severe fire season on record. Our northern neighbors have already burned through a staggering 8.2 million hectares this year, with smoke plumes reaching as far as Europe. Despite the commendable efforts of numerous international firefighters who have come to assist, these fires show no signs of abating any time soon.
The magnitude of Canada’s fire crisis is evident in the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre’s map, which displays the country covered in dots of red, resembling a severe case of chickenpox. These fires are not concentrated in a single region but rather spread across the north, equivalent to both New York and California burning simultaneously, with additional fires scattered in between. The CIFFC reports over 509 active fires in Canada, 253 of which are classified as “out of control.”
Likewise, the smoke blanketing the United States is not stemming from a single fire but is the cumulative effect of all these burns. According to David Roth, a forecaster with NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, although the smoke affects areas closer to the border more intensely, Americans will continue to be at risk of encountering more smoke days until the fires are completely extinguished.
The duration of these fires is a complex question. Isaac Sanchez, a battalion chief for communications at Cal Fire, explains that fires can burn for varying lengths of time depending on factors such as fuel availability, oxygen supply, and temperature. Each fire behaves uniquely, necessitating different approaches for containment. Particularly severe fires can persist for weeks or even months. For instance, California’s largest recorded fire, the August Complex, burned for 87 days, while the Dixie Fire raged for more than 100 days. In 2017, Canada’s Elephant Hill fire persisted for over two months.
The type of vegetation burning and its dryness level also affect the duration of fires. While grasslands burn rapidly, resembling a piece of paper consumed by flames, forested areas with denser brush tend to prolong fires. Much of Canada’s fires are occurring in boreal forest regions, which burn intensely due to the type and density of trees present. Some boreal forests contain peat, which, when wet, can inhibit fires but can exacerbate them when dry, allowing them to spread underground.
Weather conditions greatly influence fire behavior. High temperatures and wind intensify fires, while snow and rain can inhibit and ultimately extinguish them. However, in some instances, precipitation may not entirely extinguish fires. Zombie fires in the Arctic region have been observed to smolder under the snowpack throughout the winter months, only to reignite during the following spring.
The location of a fire also determines its lifespan. Fires tend to propagate uphill and can be impeded by bodies of water such as lakes or rivers. The topography of an area also affects accessibility for firefighting efforts. Remote and challenging-to-reach regions often require specialized tactics, including parachuting firefighting squads known as smokejumpers.
In Canada, the mean duration of fires exceeding 1,000 hectares is approximately 23 days, while fires surpassing 10,000 hectares burn for about 39 days on average. Some of the currently active fires have been burning for weeks, while new fires continue to emerge. The size and intensity of the entrenched fires make it difficult to predict their exact duration. Bruce MacNab, the head of Wildland Fire Information Systems with Natural Resources Canada, suggests that it would take significant rainfall to completely halt these enormous fires. He believes they will likely persist for several more weeks. Generally, Canada’s fire season begins to subside in the fall, and this year, firefighting operations are expected to continue until September, unless there are substantial periods of heavy rainfall.
In the meantime, millions of Americans must prepare for extended periods of intense smoke. The duration of these smoke days depends on various factors, including wind direction.
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