Welcome to the League Championship Series, with the ALCS starting on Sunday and the NLCS coming Monday. It’s an exciting time, and I’m thrilled to continue with Best Bets here on this fine Sunday. The only thing about Sunday that brings me down is that Trea Turner won’t be in action. He has been our golden goose this postseason. The Phillies have played in six playoff games, and I’ve bet the over on his H+R+RBI (hits plus runs plus RBI) prop all six times, and it has cashed every time. It’s ridiculous.
I even got a bit worried before Game 4. That little voice in my head started to say that I’ve pressed my luck too much on him and should back off. Fortunately, the principled gambler in me said I was going to ride him as long as he was hot. It’s like playing blackjack and having an absurd hot streak where the dealer busts seven times in a row. You don’t leave the table. You wait until you’ve had a few losing hands, and you know for sure the hot streak is over. In the case of Turner and Game 4, he went 4 for 4 with a double and home run, easily cashing.
I tell this story for a reason. I’ve come across baseball gamblers who won’t play props on a player if he had a big game the previous day. I couldn’t disagree more with this approach. The hot hand theory can absolutely work, and this Turner streak is proof.
We’ll be back Monday with a Trea Turner play, and that’s not a spoiler. We’re playing him every single game until he gives us a reason not to. In the meantime, let’s improve our 16-9 record.
Rangers (+119) at Astros (-140), 8:15 p.m. ET
Starting pitchers: LHP Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22)
The battle for Texas is the ALCS, marking the first-ever LCS matchup between two teams from the same state. The Astros may have won the regular-season series 9-4, but that doesn’t necessarily give them the advantage here. They do have the home-field advantage, but that could actually work in favor of the Rangers. The Astros had a mediocre 39-42 record at home during the regular season and went 1-1 in the ALDS. It reminds me of the 2019 World Series.
The play: Marcus Semien over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-155)
There’s a lot of juice on this bet, but it’s worth it. Semien led the league in both runs (122) and hits (185) during the regular season. He also drove home 100 runs despite being a leadoff man. That’s an average of 2.51 H+R+RBI per game, and he only needs two here. Although he hasn’t hit as well in the playoffs, he has still gone over on this prop in three out of five games.
Most enticingly, Semien has a great history against Verlander. They’ve faced each other 43 times, with Semien getting 14 hits (.326 average) including a double, triple, and two home runs. Their most recent meeting was on September 6, when Verlander allowed only two runs (one earned), and Semien went 3 for 3 with a home run and RBI single.
Semien has only struck out once against Verlander since 2019 and has gathered eight hits, including two home runs and a double, compared to one strikeout. For whatever reason, Semien just sees the ball very well out of Verlander’s hand. We don’t need to worry about the reason; we can just play the prop and take advantage.
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