Editor’s Note: Stay up to date with CNN’s latest coverage of Hurricane Lee and Friday’s forecast here.
CNN — Hurricane Lee has transformed into a massive Category 5 storm, with wind speeds of up to 160 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 11 p.m. ET advisory on Thursday. This major storm is currently spinning over the Atlantic, far east of the Caribbean. Initially a Category 1 storm earlier in the day, Lee has rapidly intensified in the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean, doubling its wind speeds within the last 24 hours. The storm is approximately 700 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, as reported by the hurricane center in the 11 p.m. advisory.
The hurricane is expected to reach its maximum intensity over the weekend and remain a dangerous presence over the southwestern Atlantic in the early part of next week. However, it is too early to determine whether the US mainland will be directly affected. The National Hurricane Center warns that the northern Caribbean will experience dangerous surf and rip currents starting Friday, followed by the United States on Sunday.
The latest predictions indicate that the center of Hurricane Lee will likely pass to the north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early next week. Although there is concern about the potential impact on these islands, it remains inconclusive whether they will experience tropical storm conditions, life-threatening surf, and rip currents.
Tropical Storm Margot, previously a tropical depression, has also emerged in the eastern Atlantic, a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The National Hurricane Center anticipates steady strengthening for Margot, forecasting it to become a hurricane over the weekend. As of now, Margot is projected to turn northwards over the central Atlantic early next week. The storm is not currently expected to pose a threat to any land areas.
The computer models for Hurricane Lee depict the storm veering north early next week. However, the exact timing of this turn and how far west Lee will travel play a significant role in determining the proximity of the storm to the US.
The potential impact of Hurricane Lee on the US coast will be influenced by various atmospheric factors at the surface and upper levels. The Bermuda High, a high-pressure system over the Atlantic, will play a crucial role in how quickly Lee turns. The current expectation is for the Bermuda High to remain strong throughout the weekend, causing Lee to maintain its west-northwestward track and slow down. As the high-pressure weakens next week, Lee will begin to move north.
The position of the jet stream, which consists of powerful upper-level winds capable of altering the path of a hurricane, will determine how close Lee tracks to the US once it starts heading north.
Scenario 1: Out to Sea
If the high-pressure weakens significantly, Lee could make a swift turn to the north early next week. If the jet stream aligns along the East Coast, it will act as a barrier, preventing Lee from approaching the coast. While this scenario would keep Lee further away from the US, it could bring the storm closer to Bermuda.
Scenario 2: Close to East Coast
If the Bermuda High remains strong and the jet stream sets up farther inland over the Eastern US, Lee might make a slower turn to the north. This scenario would leave the East Coast, particularly areas north of the Carolinas, at a higher risk of a closer approach from Lee.
It is important to note that these factors have not yet been determined, and the hurricane is still at least seven days away from posing a threat to the East Coast. As Hurricane Lee moves west in the upcoming days, the potential impact on the US will become clearer.
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