Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans strategized for over twelve months to bring about Joe Manchin’s retirement announcement on Thursday. This significant decision by the Democrat places Republicans on the brink of attaining a majority that has evaded them for two consecutive election cycles.
McConnell himself laid the groundwork last fall by visiting popular Gov. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.), as the GOP leader shared in an interview. McConnell revealed that Justice initially did not seem to consider Manchin’s retirement, but ultimately launched his bid for the Senate. In an effort to persuade former President Donald Trump to endorse Justice, McConnell’s campaign chief, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), spent months. This strategy was successful as Daines argued that endorsing Justice could force Manchin out of the race and make him more likely to compete for the presidency, which would draw votes away from the Democrats’ advantage.
McConnell stated, “You can do the math. If we don’t lose any incumbent — and I don’t think we will — he’s No. 50. And one step closer to having a majority. I’ve been involved in a lot of recruiting over the years, some successfully, some not. But I think that’s the best recruiting job I ever did,” illustrating the depth of strategy and planning that went into these maneuvers.
With the Senate GOP needing to only pick up one more seat — or none at all, if Republicans win the presidency and claim the vice-presidential tie-breaker, and facing an unfavorable electoral map, the Republicans see an opportunity in West Virginia, with Manafort’s retirement all but ensuring the seat goes red. This puts formidable pressure on other Democratic Senators in challenging states to defend their positions.
Manchin was facing an uphill battle against Justice as per the polls released by Republicans, with attack ads already being run to challenge his support for President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda. His retirement, while to some not surprising, further amps up the stakes in the Senate battle for control.
More recently, the Republican Party has started investing in grooming strong candidates who have the potential to succeed in general races, with an eye on past failures and missteps. Their easiest path to maintaining a majority utilizes exactly that strategy, and true to their word, they are already facing off against Democratic incumbents in Ohio and Montana, both of which are historically red-leaning.
With primaries in key races inflaming divisiveness within the Republican party, there remain areas of uncertainty about the future. The impact of Manchin’s retirement on the Senate remains to be seen as the Republicans debate the consequences for both party lines.
Nonetheless, Manchin’s departure has given Republicans renewed hope of achieving the majority once more. Even as they recognize his contributions as a moderate force of bipartisanship, in the context of a game where every number counts, his exit delivers the victory they have sought.
