It is highly likely that the exact circumstances surrounding the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, will remain unknown. However, the strong possibility remains that he was assassinated, potentially on the orders of Vladimir Putin or his adversaries within the Russian defense ministry who may have longed for this moment. It is probable that they believed they could eliminate Prigozhin without consequence.
While much of the commentary on Prigozhin’s assassination in the West has focused on the fear it instills in Putin and the vulnerability it exposes within the Russian regime, there are additional fears deeply rooted within the Russian establishment and population. These fears, which revolve around the notions of defeat, chaos, and distrust among themselves, will undoubtedly influence the outcome of events.
The Russian elites were primarily concerned about Putin’s failure to intervene earlier and resolve the public dispute between Prigozhin and the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu. They feared that Prigozhin’s armed demonstration could lead to a disastrous internal division within Russia, resulting in defeat in Ukraine.
The war’s outcome holds significant importance for everyone involved. If the Russian regime and state remain united, there is a good chance that the Russian army will successfully defend its existing positions. Based on my conversations, the majority of both elite and ordinary Russians would accept a ceasefire along the current battle lines and would not challenge Putin if he proposed such a resolution, framing it as a satisfactory Russian victory.
Although hardline nationalists within the establishment and military would strongly object, their influence has been weakened due to Prigozhin’s downfall and Putin’s efforts to limit their power. However, Putin still harbors concerns about their influence and their continued admiration for Prigozhin, which is why he ensured a strictly private funeral for Prigozhin.
The hardline nationalists’ desire for total victory in Ukraine, resembling a full-scale mobilization akin to 1942, would be highly unpopular among the majority of the population and pose significant threats to the economic elites’ assets. Hence, Putin has rejected this approach thus far.
The reluctance of the Russian elite to pursue total victory in Ukraine should not be mistaken for a willingness to accept Russian defeat, which is the only option currently offered by the Ukrainian and US governments. None of the Moscow elite members or the wider population with whom I spoke have suggested surrendering Crimea and the eastern Donbas. As long as Ukraine refuses to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over these regions, those who share this view believe that Russia must retain the additional territories it has gained in order to prevent future Ukrainian attacks.
It is important to note that the initial decision to invade Ukraine was not supported by the Russian elite or ordinary citizens. Putin and his close circle made that choice. However, there is a shared unwillingness to witness Russia’s defeat and humiliation in Ukraine. This sentiment can be compared to certain US soldiers who did not support the invasion of Iraq but didn’t want to see their military beaten once they were engaged.
This creates a dilemma for Russian liberals who oppose the war but do not want to support Ukraine in a conflict that results in the death of Russian soldiers and poses a grave threat of defeat for Russia. This dilemma echoes the sentiment of John Musgrave, a wounded Vietnam veteran who became an outspoken war opponent but still reacted strongly when Jane Fonda showed support for the enemy in North Vietnam. Many Russian liberals residing in the West have taken a similar stance, openly supporting Russia’s adversaries. While morally correct, this approach is unlikely to help them win a future free election in Russia, if one ever occurs.
The elites’ fear of Russian defeat is intertwined with a deeper fear of anarchy, which is shared by a significant portion of the population. They concur with some of the strongest anti-Russian elements in the US and Eastern Europe who believe that a complete defeat in Ukraine would lead to the downfall of the Putin regime and potentially plunge Russia into a period of chaos that could severely weaken or dismantle the Russian Federation.
The fear of a new Time of Troubles has deep historical roots in Russian culture and has been revived by the disastrous experiences of the 1990s. Speaking from the perspective of the small business community, the owner of a cafe chain revealed that despite anger towards the corruption of Putin’s associates, most businesspeople she knows remain loyal to Putin because he put an end to the extortion and conflicts of the 1990s, which had made running a successful business exceedingly difficult and even life-threatening.
At the core of the elites’ fear lies a distrust of one another, or arguably, a lack of trust in themselves. The chaos of the 1990s witnessed brutal struggles among the so-called oligarchs, including cases of murder. Current elites seem to believe that without a strong leader like Putin to maintain order, they would be unable to reconcile their differences and preserve the stability of the state.
Despite factors that favor Putin’s continued hold on power, another significant defeat in Ukraine would likely spell doom for his regime. Additionally, potential rivals within the establishment understand that a regime formed in the aftermath of a disastrous defeat, even without knowledge of Weimar Germany’s history, is unlikely to be stable or successful.
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