Introducing “New Roots,” a groundbreaking series by Global News that delves into the profound changes in communities across Canada due to shifting migration patterns and affordability challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Alberta is calling” declares the bold ads plastered across Toronto’s bustling transit system. These eye-catching advertisements, part of a direct recruitment campaign by the Alberta government, aim to entice individuals with promises of unexpected opportunities and, most importantly, affordable housing. Comparisons between housing prices in Toronto and Calgary are central to the allure of these ads.
Suzi Hansen and Tyler Brown, a family residing in Oakville, Ontario, fell under the spell of Alberta’s enticing advertising campaign. After struggling to break into the housing market for years while renting a townhome, Hansen broached the idea of relocating to Alberta with her husband. Initially hesitant, Brown’s curiosity was piqued when he heard a captivating radio ad titled “Alberta is calling” during his commute to work as an industrial mechanic.
“Their ad campaign really struck a chord with him,” Hansen reminisced in an interview with Global News as the family packed up their Oakville home. With three children aged 15, 12, and two, they embarked on a cross-country U-Haul journey to a small hamlet in Alberta, a couple of hours west of Edmonton, where they promptly secured a detached house. This decision was not unfamiliar to Hansen, who originally migrated to Canada from Los Angeles due to exorbitant housing prices in California. She initially tried to enter the housing market in Vancouver, eventually moving to Ontario in 2013, before finally realizing her dream, albeit a decade later and a couple of provinces away.
“I find myself in a situation in Ontario that mirrors my experience in Los Angeles many years ago, with a housing market that is prohibitively expensive,” the stay-at-home mom explained. While home prices receded in multiple regions across Canada last year, prospective buyers faced rising interest rates and persistently high inflation rates, making it challenging to purchase property in Ontario’s most expensive housing markets. With pandemic restrictions easing and remote work arrangements proving sustainable, many Ontario residents are entertaining the idea of exploring new horizons.
Hansen and Brown are not the only Canadians who have opted for greener pastures in more affordable provinces since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Interprovincial migration has emerged as a powerful force reshaping communities nationwide. According to data from Statistics Canada, interprovincial migration volumes dipped in 2020 due to the pandemic’s disruptive effects but rebounded strongly in 2021, reaching unprecedented levels in the second quarter of the year. Alberta witnessed a significant influx of migrants from British Columbia and Ontario during this period. The Maritime provinces of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick also experienced a steady stream of newcomers, particularly from Ontario.
This demand from out-of-province residents continues to fuel sales activity in Calgary, one of Canada’s housing markets that has displayed remarkable resilience amid the prevailing corrections caused by higher interest rates. Corinne Lyall, a realtor serving multiple communities in Alberta, reveals that approximately 30% of her client base consists of families from outside the province, primarily from British Columbia and Ontario. Individuals who previously rented basement apartments in Vancouver now find themselves able to afford detached homes in Alberta, priced at $650,000, with salaries equal to or even surpassing what they earned in British Columbia.
Marc Desormeaux, Principal Economist of Canadian Economics at Desjardins, closely monitors population flows between provinces. In a May report, Desormeaux and his co-authors highlighted the record-setting net interprovincial outflows from Ontario in 2021 and 2022, predominantly fueled by young people aged 15-24. Desormeaux asserts that Ontario’s loss of residents is unprecedented at this stage. For Desormeaux, interprovincial migration boils down to young people determining where they can and want to establish roots, taking into consideration affordability as a pivotal factor.
A Desjardins analysis of 2022 data reveals that the ratio of home prices to housing income is around 10 in markets like Atlantic Canada and Alberta. In Ontario and British Columbia, this figure exceeds double digits. Although British Columbia has traditionally served as an attractive destination for Canadians migrating westward, the province recently experienced a 12-month net loss of interprovincial migrants for the first time in a decade. Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Quebec emerged as the top provinces losing residents over the past year, as per Desjardins’ analysis of StatCan data. However, Desormeaux notes that Quebec’s outflows have subsided due to its relative housing affordability. He anticipates similar trends unfolding in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where most migrants currently head for Alberta.
Before heading west, Hansen’s husband diligently searched in vain for trades work in various Ontario cities where the wages offered would eventually enable them to enter the housing market. However, Alberta enticed him with job offers that promised $10, $12, or even $15 per hour more in pay, accompanied by attractive relocation packages, excellent benefits, and bonuses. Hansen fondly recalls how hard it was to resist this opportunity, considering the drastically lower cost of housing in Alberta.
“At the core, it all comes down to affordability,” explains Desormeaux. “Housing affordability is significantly better in jurisdictions like Atlantic Canada and Alberta compared to Ontario. This drives many young individuals to seek opportunities far from their original location in order to establish careers and start families.”
Hansen admits that leaving Ontario behind doesn’t evoke strong feelings of nostalgia. While their new home in Alberta is further away from the province’s major cities compared to their life in the Greater Toronto Area, the family’s priorities shifted during the pandemic when nightlife ceased to be a factor. Brown, who used to perform in a band at Toronto venues, now desires to spend more time outdoors with his family.
“The pandemic has altered our lifestyle significantly,” Hansen asserts. While she acknowledges feeling somewhat disappointed that Ontario couldn’t offer the same economic prospects they found in Alberta, Hansen is content with her role as a stay-at-home mom. She recalls that a few years ago, the wages she earned as an insurance agent in Ontario matched what she made in Los Angeles 15 years ago.
Desormeaux states that additional changes brought about by the pandemic are also contributing to the success of Alberta and Atlantic Canada. Telework opportunities enable youth to work in more affordable, remote communities in the Prairies and on the East Coast instead of being tied to a big city and commuting to the office. This newfound ability to attract youthful talent bodes well for the long-term economic prospects of Alberta and other more affordable provinces. Gen Z Canadians are generally entrepreneurial and financially astute, factors that will boost productivity and fuel long-term prosperity.
Conversely, the inability to retain young individuals due to the high cost of living and housing market challenges is a concern for Ontario and British Columbia, according to Desormeaux. “Cities lose their appeal when they become unaffordable, and are unable to attract young talent, innovation, and the associated gains in productivity over the long run,” he warns. “This poses a significant challenge for regions grappling with affordability issues.”
With Canada’s aging population and declining birth rate, the country’s economy increasingly relies on migration to sustain growth and vitality. The choices individuals make regarding where to put down roots, both geographically and financially, will shape the future trajectory of Canada’s communities.
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