Main risks to UK: Drone attacks, AI, and Russian threat to energy

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An assessment by the UK government has identified several main threats to the country, including artificial intelligence, drone attacks on critical infrastructure, and potential disruption to energy supplies by Russia. These vulnerabilities are among the 89 threats listed in the Cabinet Office’s national risk register, which was published on Thursday. Some of these threats, such as the impact of Russia on gas supplies to western Europe and the vulnerability of undersea telecommunications cables, were publicly acknowledged for the first time in the register. The government has taken a more transparent approach to disclosing information on these risks to enhance the UK’s resilience.

Ongoing chronic threats identified in the register include climate change, antimicrobial resistance, and serious organised crime. Additionally, acute threats are grouped into various themes including terrorism, cyber attacks, state threats, accidents and system failures, natural and environmental hazards, and conflict and stability.

The register provides a worst-case scenario assessment for each risk, considering both impact and likelihood. The most severe threats, labeled as having a “catastrophic” impact, include a potential future pandemic, large-scale chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear attacks, and the failure of UK electricity transmission. These events are assigned a likelihood rating of “highly unlikely” or “remote”. Other threats, such as a civil nuclear accident or radiation release from a foreign nuclear site, are also considered “catastrophic” but with a likelihood rating of less than 0.2%. Moderate threats include terrorist attacks in public spaces and technological failures in critical financial infrastructure, while a malicious drone attack is considered a threat of “moderate” impact with a low likelihood of occurring. Significant risks include disruptions of Russian gas supplies to Europe and the loss of transatlantic telecom cables, evaluated with a likelihood rating of 5 to 25%.