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On the eve of the Bastille Day military parade, French president Emmanuel Macron praised the government’s ambitious seven-year defense budget as proactive, aiming to maintain France’s influence as a powerful nation. The military parade on July 14 showcased new equipment, including Guépard helicopters from Airbus and Serval armored vehicles.
However, beneath the grandeur and impressive numbers, there are uncomfortable truths. The French armed forces have been struggling to catch up with the consequences of budget cuts made after the Cold War in pursuit of a “peace dividend.”
The recently approved budget for 2024-2030 amounts to €413bn, a 40% increase compared to the allocation in the 2019-2025 budget. However, inflation will reduce the spending uplift by approximately €30bn, and additional costs for maintenance and expensive high-tech equipment will consume the rest.
As a result, the increased budget will not lead to a significant improvement in France’s capabilities. Critics argue that France will continue to have a “bonsai army,” comparable to the US army but on a much smaller scale.
Despite these challenges, Macron deserves recognition for addressing the issue even before the Ukraine crisis. France’s defense spending is set to reach €68bn in 2030, double the 2018 level. However, it will barely meet NATO’s target of spending 2% of GDP on defense.
There is a perceived discrepancy between France’s significant spending and the lack of tangible progress in actual programs, leading to the impression of inefficiency. Critics, like former colonel Michel Goya, contend that the budget will only mitigate the existing shortcomings.
This new defense budget raises important questions about the strategic direction of the French armed forces. Should France maintain its expeditionary force or prioritize capabilities for land warfare, as witnessed in Ukraine? The government has opted for relative continuity, allocating a substantial portion of the budget to nuclear weapons and their delivery systems.
While the army’s brigades will be maintained, the naval and air fleets will not see significant growth, with several equipment acquisitions delayed. Drawing lessons from Ukraine, France will invest more in munitions, drones, and air defenses but will not have enough “mass” for an extended ground war.
This trade-off reflects France’s need to balance military ambition with public debt and other socioeconomic priorities. As Senator Christian Cambon emphasizes, France aims to defend itself while cooperating with NATO and European allies.
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