Key Insights from Tuesday’s Elections: Impact of Abortion on Democrats’ Success

Ohioans enshrine right to abortion in state constitution and Democrats win big in off-year elections.

The political potency of abortion rights proved more powerful than the drag of President Joe Biden’s approval ratings in Tuesday’s off-year elections. Ohioans enshrined a right to abortion in their state’s constitution, and Democrats took control of both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly while holding onto the Kentucky governorship.

The night’s election results showed the durability of Democrats’ political momentum since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. After a strong midterm showing last year and a series of special election wins, Democrats head into Biden’s reelection contest with momentum. The key question for the party is how to translate that momentum to Biden, who remains unpopular.

Key takeaways from Tuesday include the power of abortion to aid Democrats. With victories by candidates who support abortion rights, Dems provide evidence that the issue motivates voters. Aside from abortion, attacks on transgender rights did not work, as Republican used over $5 million to air anti-LGBTQ+ ads in Kentucky. However, their gubernatorial candidate underperformed expectations. Similarly, Republicans spent more than half a million dollars on the same issues in Virginia’s legislative races but ultimately did not succeed. Another key takeaway was a Democratic victory in Mississippi’s governor’s race, while Rhode Island sends a Biden aide to the House.

The results of the off-year elections provide ample evidence of a changing political environment. Voters in Ohio approved a constitutional amendment establishing the right to an abortion, while the issue also became a deciding factor in Kentucky.

The president may also have taken notes from Andy Beshear of Kentucky, who managed to secure a second term by staying hyper focused on local issues like teacher salaries and navigating the pandemic. Despite his party’s loss in Kentucky races beneath the marquee governor’s contest, the prominence of abortion as a major issue in Tuesday’s elections indicates a shift in American politics. Abortion rights have emerged as one of the primary motivators for Democratic voters, and as the political landscape continues to change, it seems that it won’t be easy for Republicans to defend bans on abortion.

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