UK Politics: Boris Johnson’s Populist Brexit Dream and the Challenges for Labour
Four years ago, nobody could have foreseen the extraordinary week that just unfolded in British politics. Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to a resounding victory in the December 2019 general election, while Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party faced its worst defeat since 1935. The long-term prospects for the Tories, embracing the populist dream of Brexit, seemed uncertain, and even Labour MPs questioned the future of their party after such significant losses.
However, Conservative electoral hopes have since faltered as three successive prime ministers have struggled to unite the party around differing visions beyond leaving the EU. Last week, Rishi Sunak’s attempts to revive Tory chances were overshadowed by speculation surrounding the future of HS2 at the party conference, and his plans to improve transport infrastructure outside of the southeast fell apart under scrutiny. In stark contrast, Keir Starmer’s Labour party celebrated a significant win in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. But if Starmer were to win the next general election, the important question would be the scale of the challenges awaiting a Labour government.
This is the legacy an incoming Labour government would inherit:
- A general distrust among voters towards politicians keeping their promises
- Under-resourced and understaffed public services
- Struggling low-income parents due to eroded tax credit safety nets
- Regional inequalities and stagnant economic growth from Brexit and lack of investment
The most striking aspect of Rishi Sunak’s speech last week was the absence of a strong defense for the Conservative government’s record. Despite pitching himself as the party’s fifth successive prime minister, he presented himself as a break from the past. However, the 13-year legacy of Conservative prime ministers has left public services underfunded and understaffed, with low-income families struggling and a divided economy due to regional disparities and Brexit.
Sunak’s claim to be a different type of prime minister, committed to long-term decisions for the country, is implausible. His short-term decision to cancel the Birmingham to Manchester leg of HS2 saves money now but sacrifices long-term value. His “Network North” plan seemed hastily put together, with mistakes and unrealistic promises, reflecting political short-termism. Moreover, Sunak failed to address pressing challenges such as the rising cost of living, struggling schools and hospitals, and the unaffordable housing crisis.
Furthermore, Sunak’s strategy to sow division on climate and asylum policies for electoral gain is concerning. By rolling back measures to achieve net zero carbon emissions and exaggerating the impact of asylum seekers, he undermines essential targets and promotes populism. Sunak’s relaxed attitude towards the truth mirrors that of Boris Johnson, misleading the public with false claims. This approach has led to deep cynicism among voters, with doubts whether Sunak will deliver on his promises.
On the other hand, Keir Starmer has led an impressive turnaround for Labour since becoming the party’s leader. Labour enjoys a significant lead over the Conservatives in polls, has become the largest party in local government in England, and is even attracting nationalist voters in Scotland. Starmer swiftly distanced the party from Jeremy Corbyn, suspending him after his comments downplaying Labour’s antisemitism issue. Starmer has made organizational reforms to strengthen the leadership and has shown differences in foreign policy. However, criticism remains that voter support for Labour is primarily driven by anti-Conservative sentiment, without a clear understanding of Labour’s vision.
Labour has drawn dividing lines with the Tories, particularly on social mobility and refugee policy. However, Starmer must strike a balance in setting out Labour’s vision while avoiding easy attacks on unfunded spending commitments. Voter cynicism and rejection of Labour’s 2019 manifesto highlight the necessity for realistic and achievable policy proposals.
In conclusion, the future of UK politics remains uncertain. The Tories face challenges in uniting their party beyond Brexit, while Labour must solidify their vision and build trust among voters. As the country navigates through the aftermath of Brexit and addresses pressing issues, the next general election will be crucial in determining the direction of the UK.
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