Scientists have recently unveiled a list of the top 20 countries with the highest number of towns and cities prone to potentially deadly flooding caused by climate change. This is concerning because instead of moving away from flood-prone areas, settlements are expanding into them, putting lives at risk.
The Netherlands takes the lead on the list, followed by Vietnam, Laos, Bangladesh, and Fiji. Other countries in the top 20 include Japan, China, Switzerland, Croatia, Austria, Egypt, South Korea, and North Korea. While the United Kingdom is not on the new list, previous research has shown that one in six English properties could be affected by flooding by 2050 due to rising sea levels.
The study, led by economist Jun Rentschler from The World Bank, reveals a significant increase in settlements located in flood danger zones since 1985. Settlements in these hazardous areas have grown at a faster rate compared to non-exposed zones, especially in East Asia. Rather than adapting to climate change hazards, many countries are actively increasing their exposure.
The evidence shows that climate change is causing an increase in extreme natural events like flooding. The release of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere, which causes the greenhouse effect, is warming the climate. This warming is melting polar ice, contributing to rising sea levels and severe flooding. Warmer air can also hold more water, resulting in increased rainfall across the globe.
Coastal regions are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels and are at high risk of being permanently submerged. This puts people living in these areas at the greatest risk of death. Recent flooding in New York City serves as a reminder of the destructive power of heavy rainfall caused by climate change.
For the study, researchers combined global flood hazard data with data on settlement footprints from 1985 to 2015. The overall extent of settlements has increased by 85.4% during this period. However, settlements with high flood-hazard exposure, defined as areas at risk of flooding depths of more than 60 inches during 1-in-100-year flood events, have grown by 105.8%. The number of settlements exposed to the highest flood-hazard level has increased by a worrying 121.6%.
Even in high-income countries like the Netherlands, many settlements are not adequately protected against 1-in-100-year flood hazards. Low-income and middle-income countries, such as Laos and Vietnam, face even greater challenges in building defenses against floods due to limited funding.
Despite the Netherlands being at the top of the list, the country, along with Japan and the US, has made substantial investments in protecting settlements that were already in high-hazard flood zones in 1985. For instance, the Dutch authorities have implemented sea dykes to safeguard low-lying areas from storm surges.
The researchers emphasize that their findings have significant implications for urban planners and policymakers worldwide, not just in the top 20 nations. They recommend that areas with high flood exposure invest in disaster preparedness to mitigate losses. In areas where flood exposure is increasing rapidly, revising land use plans and updating building codes and infrastructure master plans are urgent. Although settling in flood zones may not always be avoidable due to land scarcity and geographic constraints, flood protection systems and disaster preparedness measures can support resilient socio-economic development.
In a separate study, Canadian experts have issued a chilling prediction about the impact of climate change on humanity. They suggest that one billion people, equivalent to one eighth of the global population, will die by 2100 if global warming reaches or exceeds 3.6°F (2°C). The majority of these deaths will occur in developing countries, mainly affecting poorer individuals. Executives at oil and gas companies may also bear responsibility for contributing to mass fatalities. Various catastrophes such as flooding, wildfires, disease outbreaks, and severe weather events like droughts are expected to cause these fatalities.
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