Donald J. Trump may secure enough delegates to effectively clinch the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential nomination by the time he sits at his federal trial. The trial is set to begin on March 4, after five states have held their nominating contests. On Super Tuesday, March 5, 15 states will hold votes that will determine if any of Trump’s challengers remain viable alternatives.
Florida, Ohio, and Illinois will hold their primaries two weeks later, with Florida and Ohio being winner-take-all contests. This means the top vote-getter statewide will receive all of the delegates, which historically benefits the front-runner. Trump’s trial is expected to be ongoing by this point.
The clash between the party’s calendar and Trump’s trial schedule is indicative of the unique nature of this nominating contest. It will be a Trump-dominated clash that will shape the future of the Republican Party.
Trump’s campaign has been instrumental in rewriting the rules to benefit him, leading to a front-runner set of rules. He has argued that the trial start date interferes with the election, but it is more likely to impact his ability to campaign for subsequent primaries, as 60% of the delegates will be awarded after Super Tuesday.
Typically, defendants must be present in court for their trials. In Trump’s case, prosecutors estimate they will need four to six weeks to present their case, followed by the defense calling additional witnesses. This timeline suggests that the majority of delegates will have been awarded before a verdict is reached.
If Trump maintains his polling advantage but is later convicted by a jury, some factions within the Republican Party may attempt to block his nomination at the convention, as they did in 2016. This could lead to a split between Trump loyalists and the party’s establishment.
State parties have until October 1 to submit their formal delegate allocation rules, and they must consider the unfolding legal circumstances. However, currently, there are no signs that the party’s leadership is planning to use Trump’s legal troubles against him.
Trump’s campaign is preparing for a contested convention but is in a stronger position compared to 2016. They have more experienced and professional team members and have consolidated support within state parties. Trump is also personally involved in convention politics, endorsing officials who will have influence in choosing convention delegates.
Despite Trump’s claims, it remains uncertain if a president can pardon himself. Therefore, having another Republican secure the nomination and then pardon Trump might be a safer legal route.
There is the possibility of a chaotic contested national convention, which could lead well-funded Trump rivals to remain in the race as delegates may be hesitant to choose a convicted felon as the party’s standard-bearer.
Trump plans to appeal the trial date, although such grievances are typically taken up after a verdict is reached. His legal team may consider filing a petition for a writ of mandamus to get higher courts to intervene before the trial begins.
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