On a Saturday morning in Winterset, Iowa, a small town known for being John Wayne’s birthplace, over 100 people filled the back room of Pizza Ranch. Some were there for the breakfast special, a unique thin-crust pizza topped with gravy, sausage, and scrambled eggs. However, the main attraction was Ron DeSantis, the 44-year-old governor of Florida and one of the many Republicans competing for the party’s presidential nomination in 2024. Sporting a short-sleeved collared shirt and cowboy boots, DeSantis warned that a second term for President Joe Biden would lead America into a “woke dystopia.” He emphasized his conservative policies such as a ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy and restrictions on teaching gender and sexuality in primary schools. DeSantis apologized for his time constraints but assured his audience that he would return to their area, promising to visit all 99 counties of Iowa in the future.
For DeSantis and his fellow Republican candidates, Iowa is crucial. The state’s Republican caucus on January 15 marks the beginning of the presidential primary process. All candidates understand that if they can hamper former President Donald Trump’s momentum in Iowa, they will have a chance to grab support away from him in other early voting states like New Hampshire and South Carolina. While Trump currently leads in the polls, some political observers believe that an opening exists in Iowa for a competitor. Trump has chosen not to engage in the traditional retail politics that define Iowa campaigns, and the state’s voters take their vetting responsibilities seriously. They do not want the race to be decided before it even begins.
Trump’s opponents understand the significance of Iowa. Veteran Republican pollster Frank Luntz explains, “If Trump wins both Iowa and New Hampshire by landslides, there is no reason for any other state. The die will be cast at that point.” To be a viable competitor, a candidate must defeat Trump in either Iowa or New Hampshire and demonstrate public support. However, lesser-known candidates are making inroads into Trump’s and DeSantis’s support in key primary states like Iowa, as shown in a recent Fox Business poll. The race appears much closer and wide open than what the opinion polls suggest.
Investing heavily in early voting states, DeSantis and his counterparts are actively campaigning. Super PACs supporting candidates are spending millions on advertising in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, has already held numerous campaign events in Iowa alone. Meanwhile, thirteen presidential candidates are scheduled to attend the Iowa Republican party’s annual Lincoln Dinner, and many will also make appearances at the state fair. These events allow candidates to engage in traditional retail politics, including shaking hands, posing for photos, and answering questions, which greatly appeal to the people of Iowa.
However, even with excellent retail politics skills, it remains uncertain whether any candidate can sway Republican voters away from Trump. Despite his legal troubles, Trump continues to lead the Republican field in the polls. His numbers have even increased during criminal indictments and investigations. Trump’s resilience has not deterred voters like Joe Van Ginkel, chair of the Republican party in Madison County, Iowa. Van Ginkel remains open to supporting Trump despite reservations about his actions. He has met eight of the Republican candidates and intends to speak with all of them before making a decision.
The day before his breakfast event in Winterset, DeSantis appeared at the Family Leadership Summit, an influential gathering of evangelical Christians. This voting bloc makes up a significant portion of Republican caucus goers, and their support played a crucial role in embracing Trump’s presidency. Bob Vander Plaats, the organizer of the Family Leadership Summit, has endorsed the winning candidate in previous Iowa caucuses. He has not endorsed anyone yet but believes Iowa is ready to move on from the former president. Other evangelical voters share this sentiment, expressing frustration with Trump’s behavior while still appreciating his presidency and wanting the next nominee to follow his agenda.
In conclusion, the battle for Iowa among Republican presidential candidates is intense and crucial. While Trump is the frontrunner, other candidates are determined to challenge him and believe there is an opening to gain support in Iowa. Retail politics plays a significant role in winning over voters in the state, where they take their vetting responsibilities seriously. Candidates like DeSantis are investing heavily in early voting states and actively engaging with voters. However, it remains to be seen whether they can surpass Trump’s popularity among Republicans, especially within the influential evangelical Christian voting bloc.
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