Thursday marked an occasion of great significance as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi engaged in their first-ever phone call. A cursory analysis of the situation might lead one to believe that these two predominantly Muslim nations were joining forces to support Hamas in its war against Israel.
However, upon closer examination, it becomes clear that there was a fundamental misalignment in their conversation.
MBS, in his pursuit of peace with Israel and integration into the global economy, finds himself at odds with Tehran’s agenda of eradicating Israel and exerting dominance over the Middle East through its network of clients and proxies.
The Saudi readout of the phone call emphasized MBS’s unwavering commitment to championing the Palestinian cause and fostering comprehensive and just peace that upholds the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people.
For Iran, any reference to peace that acknowledges Israel’s existence is simply intolerable.
Similarly, Hamas’ charter explicitly states its goal of “liberating Palestine, from the River Jordan in the east to the Mediterranean in the west.”
Although diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia were restored earlier this year, there is speculation that Iran may have instigated Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel due to concerns over the progress in Saudi-Israeli normalization talks.
Evidence supporting this theory can be found in statements made by top Iranian officials. Ali Akbar Velayati, a key foreign-affairs aide to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, cautioned against the perils of normalizing ties with Israel, citing potential risks to regional stability.
One specific concern expressed by Velayati was the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, a proposed trade route that would traverse major Middle Eastern countries, including Israel. Velayati argued that this corridor, if realized, could overshadow China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which currently passes through Iran.
The implicit threat in Velayati’s message is directed at the UAE and Bahrain, both of which signed the Abraham Accords with Israel last year. Velayati contends that normalizing relations with Israel will lead to the collapse of Gulf governments, as was witnessed in the case of Iran’s Shah Reza Pahlavi in 1979 and the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who signed the first peace treaty with Israel in the same year.
While there have been reports, disputed by the White House, suggesting that Iran instructed Hamas to initiate hostilities with Israel, putting peace efforts on hold, it is the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy’s joint statement that carries weight. These countries have declared Hamas a terrorist organization and vowed to protect Israel’s right to self-defense, setting the stage for a peaceful and integrated Middle East region once the current conflict subsides.
When Saudi Arabia initially sought to restore ties with Iran, there was speculation that the kingdom was shifting its allegiances and aligning itself with the Russia-China-Iran axis, abandoning its ties to America and the West. Iranian media even praised Saudi Arabia for allegedly joining BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
However, a closer examination reveals that appearances can be deceiving. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan clarified that they would consider BRICS’ invitation but had not yet made a decision. Saudi Arabia has yet to join any anti-Western alliances, indicating that it remains aligned with the West and is actively pursuing a military treaty with the United States, as well as normalization of relations with Israel.
Once the situation stabilizes and Israel emerges victorious against Hamas, it is likely that Saudi-Israeli talks will resume.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Twitter: @hahussain
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