Insights: GOP’s House Speaker Johnson Unlikely to Recreate Trump’s Election Battle, Analysts Predict

By Andy Sullivan and Andrew Goudsward

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson has made headlines for his stance on abortion, same-sex marriage, and his efforts to challenge Donald Trump’s 2020 election defeat.

As the newly appointed speaker, Johnson now holds significant influence in steering the chamber and has a seat at the table alongside Democratic President Joe Biden and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer in negotiating various bills. However, due to actions taken by Congress last year, he will have limited power to interfere with the 2024 presidential election unless he chooses to defy the law.

Johnson, a 51-year-old lawmaker from Louisiana, has avoided commenting on his involvement with former President Trump after the 2020 election or his beliefs on the legitimacy of Biden’s win.

While Johnson and 199 of his colleagues voted against the Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022, embedded within a year-end spending bill, the legislation makes it much more difficult for lawmakers to challenge election results. The bipartisan law, a response to the chaos of Jan. 6, 2021, now requires the approval of one-fifth of the House and Senate to consider a challenge, compared to the previous ability of any single lawmaker to trigger a challenge.

“If it’s followed, we should be in good shape, and there should be every expectation that it would be followed,” stated Edward Foley, an election-law expert at Ohio State University.

Johnson has faced criticism from Democratic groups due to his legal work advocating for conservative social causes before his election to the House in 2016.

His defense of his state’s ban on same-sex marriage and representation of a biblical theme park in a religious discrimination lawsuit against Kentucky have drawn backlash. He has also opposed court rulings that decriminalized gay sex.

In Congress, Johnson has consistently voted against nationwide abortion legalization and protections for same-sex marriage, in the event that the Supreme Court overturns its previous decision.

Though Johnson initially voted against a funding bill in September that prevented a government shutdown, he has since stated his plan to support the next funding deadline on Nov. 17.

TRUMP ELECTION FIGHT

Following Trump’s defeat, Johnson submitted a legal brief, signed by 125 other House Republicans, urging the Supreme Court to reject election results from contested states that Trump had lost to Biden.

Johnson argued that these states had unlawfully changed their election procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic, rendering the results invalid. He maintained this stance even after the Supreme Court dismissed the case.

“We are convinced the election laws in certain states were changed in an unconstitutional manner,” Johnson stated alongside 36 other House Republicans on Jan. 6, 2021, just hours before Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an unsuccessful attempt to disrupt the election certification.

Later that day, Johnson and 138 other House Republicans voted against certifying Biden’s victory.

If Republicans retain control of the House and keep him as speaker, Johnson could play a more prominent role in January 2025 when Congress certifies the results of the next presidential race. However, he would still have limited ability to influence the outcome. “The speaker has a very limited and almost nonexistent role in the Electoral College process,” explained Michael Thorning, an election-law expert at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

The law also clarifies that vice presidents have a ceremonial role when presiding over the certification.

Foley suggested that in theory, a House speaker could refuse to follow the law or even declare themselves the acting president. Additionally, a House speaker would have the authority to influence proceedings if a winner needed to be declared due to no candidate winning a majority of electoral votes.

“It feels unrealistic, but what happened on Jan. 6, 2021, felt unrealistic, too, until it happened,” he added.

(Reporting by Andy Sullivan and Andrew Goudsward; Editing by Alistair Bell)

Reference

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