The frequency and reach of tornadoes are increasing due to global warming, posing a greater threat to areas that rarely experienced these storms. According to Climate Central, the US has witnessed six times as many billion-dollar severe storms in the past decade compared to the previous two decades, which are the storms responsible for tornado formation. The current year has already surpassed the annual average for tornado-related deaths, with at least 58 lives lost across 10 states. This increase is attributed to an earlier tornado season and the expansion of tornado alley as a result of a warmer climate.
Meteorology professor Walker Scott Ashley from Northern Illinois University predicts a near doubling of storms that produce tornadoes in areas like northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma, the Arkansas River Valley, and the mid-South. He explains that tornadoes require moisture, instability, wind shear, and lift to form. With a warming climate, the first two factors are expected to significantly increase, leading to more moisture and greater instability in the atmospheric system.
The town of Rolling Fork, Mississippi, experienced a powerful F-4 tornado in March, catching residents off guard as it was the first tornado in over 50 years. The lack of tornado sirens and poor emergency preparedness highlighted the need for better readiness in communities. As a response, plans are underway to add two more warning sirens. Mayor Eldridge Walker stresses the importance of taking tornado threats seriously and being adequately prepared.
The difference between tornado activity in Kansas and Mississippi lies in population density. The mid-South region, although comparable in population size to Kansas, contains more people and possessions. Combined with socio-economic vulnerabilities, such as increased poverty rates, lack of shelter, and substandard housing, these factors create a recipe for disaster in the affected areas.
In Rolling Fork, a majority of residents did not have insurance coverage, whether for homeowners or renters. This lack of coverage reflects the need for insurers to address the widening of tornado alley. Insurer John Dickson, president of Aon Edge, emphasizes the potential economic losses reaching hundreds of billions of dollars per quarter if the current trends persist. He urges the establishment of infrastructure, capital mechanisms, and connected community systems to effectively respond to these events. However, this comes at a time when insurance dollars are decreasing, resulting in higher prices, limited coverage options, and increased deductibles.
Citing Eric Andersen, president of Aon, global reinsurer capital declined by 17% ($115 billion) to $560 billion in the first nine months of 2022. As a result, reinsurers are adjusting their strategies by raising prices, reducing coverage, and even withdrawing from certain markets to improve returns. State Farm and Allstate have already ceased writing homeowners insurance in California due to the growing risk of wildfires.
In summary, the threat of tornadoes is intensifying due to global warming, impacting regions with historically low tornado activity. The increase in tornadoes is attributed to factors like an earlier tornado season and the expansion of tornado alley. The inadequate preparedness and lack of insurance coverage in affected areas highlight the need for improved emergency response and solutions from insurers. However, declining insurance capital poses challenges in terms of higher costs, reduced coverage, and limited options.
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