Michael O’Hanlon, the Philip H. Knight chair in defense and strategy and director of the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology at the Brookings Institution, together with Constanze Stelzenmüller, the director of the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, and David Wessel, the director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at Brookings, provide insights into the current state of the conflict in Ukraine.
Ukraine has finally launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive after enduring continuous attacks from Russian missiles and drones for months. Nine new Ukrainian brigades, consisting of around 30,000 well-equipped soldiers and modern armored vehicles, have entered the battlefield. However, the preparedness of Russia poses uncertainties to the outcome of their operations. The recent Putin-Prigozhin controversy may not significantly affect the stalemate, although it is too early to predict how the Wagner mercenaries will perform without their former leader.
Despite the price caps on its oil and gas exports, Russia’s economy has fared better than expected. Ukraine continues to receive strong support from most NATO countries and like-minded states, including a steady supply of weapons as well as financial and humanitarian aid. In contrast, Russia has only received military aid from countries like Iran and North Korea.
As NATO gears up for its summit in Lithuania, member states are divided on Ukraine’s request to join the alliance and the security guarantees to offer if a consensus on membership cannot be reached. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining the course of the conflict.
Michael O’Hanlon reflects on the territorial situation in Ukraine. Since the fall of last year, the division of land mass in Ukraine remains relatively unchanged. Russian attacks in Bakhmut from the winter to the spring only resulted in modest gains for Putin. Ukraine’s counteroffensive has also produced limited effects. Russia currently controls slightly over 17% of Ukraine, including Crimea and eastern Donbas, which it seized before its full-scale invasion in 2022. Sadly, this 17% also houses a considerable number of Ukrainian citizens under Moscow’s rule. The International Criminal Court has charged Putin personally with war crimes for forcibly deporting over 19,500 Ukrainian children from these occupied regions. The casualty count includes approximately 200,000 Russian soldiers and Wagner mercenaries (with a quarter killed and the rest wounded), over 100,000 Ukrainian fighters (killed and wounded), and at least 40,000 Ukrainian civilians killed, according to estimates from the US and European governments. Over 400,000 casualties have been recorded in the 16 months of the war, with around 100,000 deaths.
O’Hanlon also highlights Russia’s bombardment of Ukraine over the past 16 months, including the deployment of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles to spread fear and hardship in Ukrainian cities. Ukraine has shown impressive resilience in intercepting incoming cruise missiles, with the success rate reaching 80-90% in recent months. However, concerns arise regarding Kyiv’s diminishing supply of air defense missiles. Despite the attacks, only a small percentage of the Ukrainian population favors negotiations to end the war before liberating the rest of the country.
David Wessel analyzes the economic aspects of the conflict. The price cap on Russian crude oil, despite initially being met with skepticism, has achieved its goals of sustaining the global economy while reducing Russia’s oil revenue used to finance the war. The cap, supported by the G7 and Australia, allows tankers carrying Russian oil to access essential maritime services only if the oil was purchased for no more than $60 a barrel. This price discrepancy between the global oil price and what Russia receives has empowered China, India, and smaller oil-importing countries to negotiate better deals with Russia. Russian oil revenue in May remained the same as the previous year, but revenue decreased by 36% year over year. However, Russia has found ways to bypass the cap through the operation of a “dark fleet” of tankers.
Wessel also delves into Ukraine’s economic situation. Public spending, with 60% allocated to the military, continues to outpace revenue. However, the central bank has refrained from printing money for government financing for six months, curbing inflation. Grants and loans from various international institutions, as well as an increase in foreign-currency reserves, have filled the budget gap. Kyiv plans to roll back some costly emergency measures implemented during the Russian invasion, and the government intends to raise prices for heating and electricity at the IMF’s recommendation. Nevertheless, Ukraine remains dependent on financial support from its allies.
Michael O’Hanlon emphasizes the significant external support given to Ukraine. Despite debates over supplying tanks, fighter aircraft, and longer-range missiles to Kyiv, aid levels have remained high and steady, amounting to nearly $250 billion USD. Europe has been particularly generous, even though a substantial portion of its financial aid comes in the form of loans. Non-Western countries like Japan have also made significant contributions.
Constanze Stelzenmüller sheds light on the humanitarian impact of the conflict. More than 5 million Ukrainians globally, excluding Russia, are registered as refugees, with over 90% of them in Europe. Additionally, over 5 million people are internally displaced within Ukraine. The recent increase in Russian missile and drone attacks is forcing citizens to take refuge in bomb shelters regularly, testing their resilience. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam is causing a major humanitarian and ecological disaster that will have long-lasting effects on the region.
President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to engage with the international community, delivering speeches targeted towards foreign audiences. His visits to foreign capitals are often accompanied by significant aid packages. During Zelensky’s trips to Washington, the United States pledged an additional $1.85 billion in military aid. He has also traveled to various countries in Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia to meet with leaders who support Ukraine’s defense efforts.
Denial of responsibility! VigourTimes is an automatic aggregator of Global media. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, and all materials to their authors. For any complaint, please reach us at – [email protected]. We will take necessary action within 24 hours.
