The author is a lecturer at Stanford University, former deputy secretary-general of NATO, and the former US chief negotiator on New Start.
During the war in Ukraine, Russia has exhibited an alarming obsession with nuclear apocalyptic scenarios. It started with Vladimir Putin suggesting that a world without Russia is not worth having, which prompted Russian media figures to advocate for the nuclear destruction of London. More recently, former president Dmitry Medvedev threatened a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Europe, and Sergei Karaganov, of Moscow’s Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, urged the Kremlin to target several countries to bring them back to their senses. In essence, the US and its NATO allies are being warned to withdraw support for Ukraine or face annihilation.
Western leaders, including Joe Biden, have responded to these wild threats with messages of calm deterrence and firm defense measures. Xi Jinping of China and Narendra Modi of India have also played a role in dissuading Putin from considering a nuclear strike. Nonetheless, the fact that the Russian ruling class, including Putin himself, seems to be unhinged about these devastating weapons is deeply unsettling.
The fixation on nuclear apocalypse appears to stem from a broader anxiety that the West aims to dismantle Russia due to its interests in Ukraine. According to the Kremlin, Russia merely seeks to reclaim its Slavic heartland, but the US and NATO allegedly seek to completely destroy Russia as a nation-state as punishment. Naturally, this line of reasoning is absurd. Russia, like any country, possesses national interests, but it must not encroach upon the interests of others. If conflicts arise, they must be resolved peacefully. However, with Russian troops currently engaged in a violent invasion of Ukraine, pursuing such an ideal may seem unrealistic. Nevertheless, it is worth striving for, and we should begin working towards it.
As a first step, we can clarify that strategically defeating Russia does not equate to dismembering the country. It does, however, require Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine, its willingness to take responsibility for the invasion and subsequent atrocities, and its commitment to repairing the extensive war damage. In such a scenario, we can collaborate with Russia to advance its interests, such as ensuring secure borders and a peaceful and prosperous environment for its citizens.
To reinforce this message, we must restore key principles of post-Cold War détente. One of these principles is that military forces should not deploy near borders without prior notification to neighboring nations, a principle that NATO armies readily adhere to. Russia, having disregarded this precept for many years, must be reminded of it. Enhanced understanding of NATO’s intentions and capabilities by Moscow and vice versa would benefit both sides.
Additionally, efforts should be made to restore nuclear cooperation. Putin suspended Russian participation in the New Start treaty under the mistaken assumption that the US would yield to his demands regarding Ukraine. However, the US does not link nuclear arms limitations to other issues; they are inherently vital for global security. If Putin fails to recognize this, Russia itself will suffer as its nuclear forces lose a crucial means of predicting US behavior, especially at a time when the US is modernizing its nuclear triad over the next two decades.
Lastly, we must find ways to engage with Russia. Due to the Kremlin’s misbehavior, NATO allies have severed contacts, including diplomatic presence, military-to-military communications, and economic interactions. Moscow has also curtailed cultural and educational exchanges, effectively isolating itself. Nevertheless, there is still potential for reconnection. Over the years, we have collaborated with talented diplomats, defense officials, economists, and nuclear experts who have played a pivotal role in shaping Russia’s foreign and security policies. It is incumbent upon us to plan for how we can renew these connections when the time is right. While some individuals may have irreparably damaged relations, others could once again become our colleagues. Moreover, a new generation of talent is emerging within Russia’s government ranks, some of whom would welcome renewed options with Europe and the US.
The key is to start considering now what we will expect from Moscow after its defeat in Ukraine and how we can ensure our own future security. While Russia’s interests cannot supersede those of any other country, we can acknowledge their validity and emphasize that they can be pursued without aggression. By making this clear, we may be able to quell the nuclear fever that currently looms over us all.
Denial of responsibility! VigourTimes is an automatic aggregator of Global media. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, and all materials to their authors. For any complaint, please reach us at – [email protected]. We will take necessary action within 24 hours.
