The whereabouts of Yevgeny Prigozhin are currently unknown. There is speculation about whether he is dead or if he is making a comeback. Prigozhin’s role in the Ukrainian invasion and his current position in Russia are subjects of interest. The political landscape in Russia has become complex, with power being divided among different actors. Apart from the traditional pillars of power, which include the military, the interior ministry, and the security service, the Wagner group led by Prigozhin has emerged as a new player. President Putin’s immediate goal is to maintain his position by redistributing power among these four actors. Experts who study Russian politics have analyzed the dynamics between these actors, but the situation is now so intricate that it requires a fresh perspective. We encourage our readers to form their own opinions and assess what the future holds for Prigozhin, Putin, Russia, and the world. To assist our readers, we present a historical overview that draws parallels to events in Russia. Let’s take a look at Nazi Germany for comparison. Adolf Hitler had reservations about fully trusting the German Army (Wehrmacht). Therefore, he began building a counterforce against it from the early days of his regime, giving rise to the Sturmabteilung (SA), the Nazi party’s original paramilitary wing. However, Hitler eventually purged the SA and disbanded it due to fears of it overthrowing his rule. In Hitler’s circle, manipulations by sycophants also played a role in this drama, even though there was no evidence of a plot by the SA to remove Hitler from power. Nevertheless, Hitler didn’t abandon the idea of creating a counterforce to the Wehrmacht. This led to the establishment of the Schutzstaffel (SS), which became the Nazi party’s private army under the more compliant leadership of Heinrich Himmler. By the end of World War II, the Waffen-SS, the military arm of the SS, had grown into a massive force with approximately 900,000 troops. Those familiar with the movie “Valkyrie,” which depicts a plot to assassinate Hitler, witnessed the complexity of the situation. The plotters had to neutralize the SS to avoid a civil war between the Wehrmacht and the private army. Benito Mussolini, the Italian dictator and Hitler’s ally, faced a different challenge. Throughout World War II, the Italian Army performed poorly on all fronts. Critics argue that even a dictator cannot force his army to fight and die for a cause they don’t believe in. When the Germans occupied Italy after the country’s armistice with the Allies, Italian partisans fought the Germans just as bravely as their counterparts in other European countries. Putin’s army seems to mirror Mussolini’s army—a force unwilling to fight for a cause it doesn’t believe in, such as fighting in Ukraine and protecting Putin. Given this perspective, Putin faces a daunting task. The Russian military will likely obstruct attempts to revive the Wagner group and expand it like the Waffen-SS. Hitler was able to buy time in creating the Waffen-SS due to initial easy victories in Poland and Western Europe. If the campaign in Poland had become a stalemate, similar to the current situation in Ukraine, Hitler would have been overthrown by the Wehrmacht. The stalemate in Ukraine may have deprived Putin of the crucial time needed to resurrect the Wagner group. Since the Bolsheviks came to power in Russia in 1917, one of the three pillars of governance mentioned earlier has enjoyed prominence over the others at different times. Initially, the military held sway due to the victory of the Bolsheviks over the White Armies in the Civil War of 1917-1922. In 1937, Joseph Stalin purged the Soviet military by executing Field Marshal Mikhail Tukhachevsky. Afterward, the KGB became dominant until the end of Stalin’s rule. However, Lavrentiy Beria, the KGB chief and Stalin’s heir apparent, was executed in 1953 by other members of the politburo who feared he would launch another purge of the party. The military, led by Marshal Georgy Zhukov, played a significant role in toppling Beria. As a result, the Soviet military became the defender of the European satellite socialist empire under the Brezhnev Doctrine, which allowed the Soviet Union to intervene in its satellite countries to preserve socialism. The Soviet military suppressed the Hungarian revolt in 1956 and the Prague Spring uprising in 1968. When Mikhail Gorbachev assumed leadership of the Soviet Union, he reduced the influence of both the military and the KGB. Both entities had played major roles in the fiasco of the Afghan invasion and occupation from 1979 to 1989. One of Gorbachev’s key initiatives was to end the unwinnable Afghan War. Under Gorbachev, the interior ministry became more prominent until the aborted coup in 1991. It is ironic that both in 1991 and the present, within a generation, Russia’s nuclear weapons pose a greater threat to the country itself than to its foreign enemies. The issue at hand is that whoever gains control of these nuclear weapons in a post-Putin Russia, be it Prigozhin or Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, might have a lower threshold for their use. In this chaotic situation, all we can do is hope for the best outcome. Hermenegildo C. Cruz, a seasoned ambassador with expertise in Sovietology, served in Moscow during the era of reform under Mikhail Gorbachev.
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