In Rochester, New York, a massive underwater volcano erupted on January 14, 2022, ejecting a significant amount of water vapor into the atmosphere.
The Hung Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcano released 146 tera-grams of water vapor into the stratosphere, accounting for approximately 10% of the water vapor in that atmospheric layer. This is noteworthy because water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas of significant abundance.
Greenhouse gases are crucial for the planet, as they play a vital role in maintaining Earth’s temperature at a level suitable for life. Discovered by French physicist Joseph Fourier, these gases include water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), and methane (CH4). They help in trapping the sun’s warmth and preventing it from escaping back into space.
Among these gases, water vapor is the most abundant and strongest, as it absorbs the most infrared wavelengths.
The eruption of the Tonga underwater volcano was unprecedented, releasing an enormous quantity of water vapor into the stratosphere. Ordinarily, volcanoes emit volcanic plumes and ash, leading to a cooling effect. However, the release of water vapor from the Tonga eruption may have had the opposite effect, contributing to a spike in global surface temperatures.
Research indicates that 2023 is likely to be the warmest year on record, with anomalous warmth in June, July, August, September, and October. This warming trend is possibly attributed to the Tonga eruption.
According to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), the Tonga eruption increases the likelihood of surpassing an annual mean global surface temperature anomaly of 1.5C by 7% in the first five years following the eruption.
The excess water vapor in the stratosphere is expected to have a reverse impact on tropospheric temperatures, leading to a warming effect at the surface. Measurements taken near the eruption in the stratosphere showed a record cooling effect, indicating an impending warming at the surface. The recent warming in the Northern Hemisphere is believed to be influenced by the Tonga Eruption, as water vapor concentrations reached this area at the end of 2022.
While the Tonga eruption might not be the sole reason for the recent warming, it has certainly played a significant role due to the substantial release of water vapor. Ongoing research aims to comprehend the full impact and duration of this event, as its effects could be prolonged. For further reading on the “State of the Climate in 2022” journal from BAMS, click here.
