Underlying US price pressures are advancing at a pace that causes apprehension among Federal Reserve officials to declare victory in their fight against inflation.
The consumer price index (CPI) excluding food and fuel, seen as a better indicator of underlying inflation, is expected to rise by 0.3% for a third month. The core CPI is projected to increase by 4.1% compared to the same period last year. This would parallel the annual advance in September and bring an end to a six-month period of declining price growth.
Though significant progress has been made since reaching a multi-decade high a year ago, inflation still remains elevated and above the Fed’s goal. The Fed is proceeding cautiously as they have paused tightening at consecutive meetings, leaving the benchmark rate at a 22-year high. “If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so,” Chair Jerome Powell said. “We will continue to move carefully, however, allowing us to address both the risk of being misled by a few good months of data, and the risk of over-tightening.”
The coming week will also see speeches from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governor Philip Jefferson. The first of the United States indicators is Tuesday’s CPI report, followed by retail sales data on Wednesday, expected to reveal a decline in consumer spending.
Elsewhere in the world, there will be data from China, Japan, the U.K., Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and more. All the details are here.
Mentions of economic news are constantly published in Bloomberg Businessweek.
