After a year and a half of intense fighting in Ukraine, Russia finds itself in need of replenishing its ammunition supplies for what could potentially be a long-lasting war. In addition to ramping up domestic arms production, Moscow is turning to an unlikely ally with a vast arsenal – North Korea.
U.S. officials anticipate that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will soon visit Russia to discuss a possible deal on the transfer of munitions with President Vladimir Putin. It is a remarkable shift from the 1950-53 Korean War, when the Soviet Union armed the communist North with weapons and ammunition.
“Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently visited North Korea, mainly for artillery shells, and it is likely that this will be discussed between Putin and Kim Jong Un,” said Alexander Gabuev, head of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Shoigu’s visit marked the first time a Russian defense chief has been to North Korea since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. His presence at a military parade in Pyongyang in July, alongside Kim and the high-ranking North Korean military officials, demonstrated Moscow’s strong efforts to establish ties with the North. Shoigu even mentioned the possibility of joint military drills.
When asked about a potential visit by Kim and a deal involving arms supplies from North Korea, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment. However, he emphasized Russia’s close relationship with Pyongyang, stating that “North Korea is our neighbor, and we will continue to develop our relations without concerning ourselves with the opinions of other countries.”
Kim made his first visit to Russia in 2019 and held discussions with Putin, but there were no significant breakthroughs in their cooperation.
While the majority of the Korean People’s Army’s weaponry is outdated, the sheer size of their arsenals could provide the Russian military with a critical lifeline in Europe’s largest land conflict since World War II.
Hong Min, an analyst at Seoul’s Korea Institute for National Unification, suggests that Russia may view North Korea as a potential “rear base” for its war efforts, ensuring a substantial supply of munitions. “Russia is hoping that North Korea could quickly establish support channels to provide war materials such as ammunition, bombs, and other supplies,” Hong said.
In November, the U.S. claimed that North Korea sold some munitions to Russia’s private military contractor, Wagner. However, both Russian and North Korean officials have denied these allegations, stating that Pyongyang has neither shipped weapons nor intends to do so.
U.S. officials perceive Russia’s pursuit of North Korean weapons as a reflection of its military challenges. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan remarks that the quality of North Korean weapons remains uncertain. “The fact that Russia is turning to a country like North Korea to bolster its defense capacity in a war it expected to be over in a week speaks volumes,” Sullivan said.
Jon Finer, U.S. President Joe Biden’s chief deputy national security adviser, conveyed during a press briefing that purchasing weapons from Pyongyang “may be the best and only option” for Moscow to sustain its war effort. Finer shared these remarks while aboard Biden’s flight from India to Vietnam. Although Washington has warned Pyongyang against exporting weapons to Russia, given the U.N. embargo on arms shipments to and from North Korea, observers believe that the U.S. has limited options for a response.
These observers contend that Moscow may be willing to exchange advanced nuclear, missile, and submarine technology with Pyongyang in return for arms supplies. Such a move could embolden Kim and pose significant threats to regional security. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, based in Washington, acknowledges the limited policy options available to the United States and its allies in addressing this new challenge.
While the North Korean stockpiles could bolster the Russian war effort, Moscow has also acquired drones from another ally, Iran, which have played a significant role in the conflict.
For over a year, Russia has utilized Shahed exploding drones to target Ukraine’s infrastructure. Although Ukrainian air defenses have adapted and improved their skills in countering these attacks, the low-cost and simplistic drones possess a range exceeding 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) and continue to cause significant damage.
Reports suggest that Russia has acquired a production license from Iran and established its own factory to assemble these drones, producing thousands annually. Initially, Iran will provide materials and technology, gradually shifting to domestically produced components.
Russian arms manufacturers have compensated for some equipment losses during the conflict and have developed new products such as satellite-guided gliding bombs and other precision weapons to counter Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive.
At the onset of the war, the widespread use of drones by Ukraine inflicted heavy casualties on Russian forces and played a significant role in their military setbacks. Russian officials admitted that they did not pay enough attention to drones before the conflict and promised to address the gap promptly.
One type of mass-produced exploding drone that has had a visible impact is the Lancet, capable of surveilling the battlefield before striking its target. Its affordability and compactness have made it a widespread weapon, allowing the Russian military to target Ukrainian tanks and artillery systems on a large scale.
Furthermore, Russia has increasingly utilized gliding aerial bombs in recent months. By adding winglets and a satellite navigation module to old Soviet-made bombs, these weapons have been transformed into efficient “smart” munitions. With a range of up to 60 kilometers (37 miles), Russian air forces can intensify their attacks on Ukrainian forces along the front line without endangering their airplanes.
Russia has adapted 500-kilogram (1,100-pound) bombs to combat the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Reports suggest that a similar conversion is being tested for a 1,500-kilogram (3,300-pound) bomb, which reportedly exhibits precision within five meters (16 feet) and creates a 15-meter (50-foot) crater. This gliding bomb serves as a powerful weapon against Ukrainian military targets.
Additionally, the Russian arsenal includes the Vikhr anti-tank missile, known for its extended range. Russian helicopter gunships employ this missile to destroy Ukrainian armor while remaining outside the reach of air defenses. Its use has been widespread during the summer period.
“The use of attack aviation has consistently posed a challenge for Ukrainian forces during the counteroffensive,” according to the Royal United Services Institute.
Russian manufacturers have also increased the production of tanks and other weaponry, while the military has tapped into its Cold War-era storage bases, housing thousands of armored vehicles. Some of these vehicles have undergone upgrades, including protective shields and other equipment to enhance their survivability.
Deputy Head of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, has stated that Russia aims to produce 1,500 battle tanks by 2023. “The conveyor belts of our military-industrial complex are operating round the clock to produce as many weapons as needed to protect the homeland effectively,” he said.
__Emma Burrows in Tallinn, Estonia, and Kim Tong-Hyung in Seoul, South Korea, contributed to this report.___
For the latest coverage on the war, follow the AP at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine.
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