Scientists predict that this week, the most powerful category of solar flares, which have the potential to cause worldwide transmission problems and blackouts, could be emitted. Radio blackouts were already observed on Sunday, although the specific locations were not disclosed.
This warning comes from scientists in both the United States and Russia. Russian scientists from Moscow’s Fedorov Institute of Applied Geophysics reported three solar flares on Sunday and anticipate the possibility of X-class flares on Monday, as stated by Reuters.
X-class flares are the largest category of solar flare activity, described by NASA as “explosions on the surface of the sun ranging from minutes to hours in length” and are considered “the real juggernauts.”
NASA explains that “large flares can release enough energy to power the entire United States for a million years.” The most powerful X-class flare ever recorded in 2003 was so intense that it overloaded the sensors measuring it. These flares can create radiation storms that can harm satellites and expose airline passengers near the poles to small radiation doses. X-class flares also have the potential to cause global transmission problems and worldwide blackouts.
Unlike geomagnetic storms that cause power outages and spectacular northern lights displays, solar flares directly impact Earth’s radio communications and release energetic particles into space, affecting the ionosphere, which conducts electricity. This leads to the degradation or complete absorption of radio signals, resulting in a radio blackout. High-frequency radio, such as GPS, is predominantly affected.
The NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts a “chance” of a strong X-class event on Monday or Tuesday, with a slight possibility on Wednesday. These events could trigger a wide area blackout of HF radio communication for approximately an hour in some parts of Earth.
NOAA reports that radio blackouts have already occurred within the last 24 hours, and there is a 50% chance of smaller radio blackouts until Wednesday, with a 25% chance of an R3 blackout on Monday and Tuesday. This likelihood decreases to 15% on Wednesday.
Are solar flares dangerous?
A few weeks ago, concerns about an “internet apocalypse” caused by solar activity went viral. However, extreme geomagnetic storms that can cause blackouts and grid systems to collapse are only expected to happen once every 500 years, with the last occurrence being 164 years ago. Solar flares increase in size and frequency every 11 years during the sun’s maximum activity cycle. While most solar flares are not dangerous to humans on Earth, they can harm astronauts and impact technology.
Solar flares are classified from A-class to X-class flares, with each classification level representing a 10-fold increase in energy output. Strong flares, rated at M5 or higher, can affect the planet’s ionosphere, leading to disruptions in navigation and GPS systems. They can also cause electrical surges or light flashes in the ionosphere, resulting in radio signal blackouts for hours at a time.
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