This week, England is expected to see a rise in deaths due to the 33C heatwave. Experts have warned that the nation could experience a similar wave of excess deaths as last year’s sizzling summer, which recorded 3,000 deaths. Although the mercury won’t reach the record-breaking 40C of last season, temperatures above 30C can still be deadly. The most vulnerable groups include the elderly, newborns, and people with health conditions like heart or lung problems. However, even healthy adults are at risk, with the majority of England now under an ‘amber’ heat health alert. Health authorities have issued this alert for most of the population, not just the vulnerable.
The UK Health Security Agency has issued a ‘yellow’ alert, indicating that only the North East of the country is somewhat spared from the heatwave’s effects. The warning, which started yesterday and lasts until Sunday night, predicts higher death rates and significant impacts on vulnerable individuals and the healthcare system. Last year, the heatwaves primarily affected the elderly, resulting in an additional 2,800 deaths among people aged 65 and over. Analysts noted that this was an unprecedented level of excess mortality during heatwaves since records began nearly two decades ago.
So how does the heat actually cause deaths? Hot weather can lead to dehydration, thickening the blood and raising the risk of heart attacks and strokes. It also lowers blood pressure, making it harder to circulate blood throughout the body, which can result in blood clots and strokes. Patients with heart and breathing problems are particularly at risk. Heat exhaustion and heat stroke are also common, especially when individuals don’t drink enough fluids and lose fluids through sweat. Studies have shown that accidents and injuries, such as car crashes, are more frequent during hot spells, possibly due to heat interfering with cognitive function.
Dr. Antonio Gasparrini, an expert in statistics and epidemiology, warns that this heatwave will likely lead to a spike in deaths, even with temperatures below 40C. He states that heat-related mortality increases gradually from an ‘optimal’ temperature of around 18-20C in the UK, but steeply rises as temperatures get hotter. The true scale of the problem will become evident in the coming months as deaths are recorded and analyzed. He emphasizes that while the elderly and those with existing health conditions are at the highest risk, younger and healthy people shouldn’t be complacent. It is crucial to have active projects to improve Britain’s infrastructure, ensuring the public can cope with the heat.
Dr. Friederike Otto, an expert in climate science, predicts a spike in heat-related deaths in the coming days due to poorly insulated homes and people’s lack of acclimatization to temperatures above 30C. She emphasizes that heat is deadly for the population and infrastructure in the UK, and people should not consider themselves invincible. To cope with the heat, people should follow advice from governments and local authorities, stay hydrated, and find cooler areas or buildings during the warmest parts of the day. Dr. Otto also calls for better preparations for extreme heat events, including redesigning cities to be more resilient to weather extremes, which would reduce emissions and benefit health and biodiversity.
One major concern is the risk of heat exhaustion, which can cause dizziness, excessive sweating, and potentially fatal heat stroke. People with circulation or breathing problems are particularly vulnerable, as are individuals with dementia who may forget to drink enough fluids during hot spells. Experts fear that heatwave-related injuries and illnesses will put additional pressure on the already strained NHS. The NHS itself is ill-prepared for such high temperatures, as older buildings are not designed for extreme heat, resulting in ward closures and canceled operations. This heatwave follows a disappointing summer with the sixth wettest July on record and an unseasonably warm autumn start in the UK.
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