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The UK Health Security Agency has warned that London is at risk of a resurgence of measles, which could potentially infect thousands and result in dozens of deaths if vaccination rates don’t increase significantly. According to a recent analysis by the agency, there were 128 confirmed cases of measles in England in the first half of this year, with 66% of those cases occurring in London. In comparison, there were only 54 cases reported nationwide in 2022.
Mathematical projections indicate that the numbers could escalate rapidly in the future, potentially leading to a measles outbreak affecting between 40,000 and 160,000 individuals in the capital. However, the agency states that the chances of a nationwide epidemic are low due to higher vaccination rates outside of London.
Beate Kampmann, professor of paediatric infection and immunity at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, highlights that “for every 1,000 children who contract measles, one or two will die from it.” She emphasizes the importance of achieving a vaccination coverage of 95% to prevent deaths, serious cases, and community outbreaks, but current coverage falls well below this target.
According to the UK Health Security Agency, the overall vaccination rate in England, achieved through the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) jab for young children, stands at approximately 85%. However, certain areas in London have vaccination rates below 70%. In response, the NHS has launched a national campaign to encourage MMR uptake, with a focus on communities in the capital that have the lowest vaccination rates.
The agency also points out that young adults aged 19 to 25 are particularly susceptible to measles due to the influence of unfounded stories in the early 2000s linking MMR to autism. These unvaccinated individuals, known as the “Wakefield cohorts” after Andrew Wakefield, who propagated the now-discredited idea of MMR side-effects, would be at the greatest risk during a large-scale outbreak.
It should be noted that measles is one of the most contagious viruses known, with each case infecting approximately 15 more people in an unvaccinated population. It results in significant complications in an estimated one out of every 15 cases. Global measles cases have been on the rise since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to a decline in childhood vaccinations. Several countries in Africa and South Asia are currently experiencing large outbreaks, including Austria, which reported 128 cases in the first half of 2023, exceeding the total number of cases in the entire EU last year.
David Elliman, a consultant in community child health at Great Ormond Street Hospital, highlights that the UKHSA warning, along with recent concerns about polio and diphtheria, should serve as a wake-up call regarding the state of childhood immunisation in general. Rather than relying on repeated catch-up programs, he stresses the importance of ensuring timely immunisation for everyone.
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