The recent Hamas attack in southern Israel had a seismic impact, both shocking and horrifying. It stands as the deadliest assault in decades, with militants launching thousands of rockets and launching attacks from different fronts. The targeted civilians, including elderly women and children, with reports of up to 100 Israelis taken hostage. At the time of writing, the death toll reached 600, and over 2,000 were injured.
The strategy behind Hamas’ actions remains unclear. Nevertheless, it has brought further disaster upon Gaza. As a result of Israeli retaliation on Sunday, 370 Palestinians were killed and over 2,000 injured. A ground invasion is becoming increasingly likely. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks of a “long and difficult war” and vows to reduce the Hamas hideouts to rubble, calling for Palestinians to evacuate even though there is nowhere to go in the densely packed territory. As always, it is civilians who suffer the most.
This military and security failure is extraordinary, considering Israel’s expertise in surveillance technologies and extensive intelligence networks. Not only did they fail to anticipate the assault, but civilians also waited for hours for the army’s response. This failure echoes the Yom Kippur war’s infamous intelligence failure, almost 50 years ago. Questions naturally arise about the political upheaval caused by Netanyahu’s right-wing government’s overhaul of the judiciary.
However, the biggest failure lies in politics. Less than a year ago, the UN Middle East envoy warned the security council that tensions were escalating. Last year witnessed the highest number of casualties in Israel, the West Bank, and Jerusalem since the end of the second intifada in 2005. A third intifada was widely predicted. Israel Defence Forces raids have increased, with the largest raid on the West Bank in two decades occurring this summer.
Palestinians have endured decades of occupation, the expansion of settlements eroding their chances of a viable future state, and escalating violence by settlers emboldened by impunity. The decade-and-a-half-long blockade has devastated Gaza’s economy, plunging half the population into poverty. The recent modest economic growth does not address the political crisis resulting from a weak and illegitimate Palestinian leadership and Netanyahu’s policies, including massive settlement expansion and alliances with extreme nationalists and racists.
Just over a week ago, President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, falsely claimed that the Middle East region was quieter than it had been in two decades. The recent events have proven this judgment massively incorrect and emphasized the consequences of US disengagement. There is an increased risk of violence in the West Bank and a potential wider conflict involving Hezbollah in Lebanon. On Sunday morning, an Egyptian police officer killed two Israeli tourists in Alexandria. Hamas not only disrupted the path towards normalized relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel but also demonstrated, at a significant human cost, that deals with Gulf states that marginalize Palestinians are not a solution. The status quo before the attack was unsustainable and uncontrollable.
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