The Republican Party is facing a dilemma in finding a strong alternative to former President Donald Trump. Trump supporters are looking for the real thing, not an imitator, while non-Trump supporters remain unimpressed. The candidate, Mike Pence, has yet to find a compelling message. This lack of a strong alternative leaves Trump in a likely position to prevail once again, as the party cannot unite around another candidate, despite the presence of an experienced, conservative, and widely acceptable candidate like Pence.
Despite Pence’s low polling numbers and his struggle to secure a spot in the Republican presidential debate, it would be unwise for Republicans to dismiss him. He represents their best chance at winning in 2024 and moving beyond Trump without dividing the party. The Republican Party finds itself in a difficult situation with their primary candidate currently facing four criminal prosecutions. This will undoubtedly be a distraction for both him and the party. Trump may even have to attend his trials in person, further consuming his campaign and overshadowing other important issues for voters.
Trump is not a strong candidate, having already lost to Joe Biden once before. Biden may have his own weaknesses, but they are overshadowed by Trump’s chaotic behavior. Biden can position himself as a steady, stable alternative, emphasizing a strong economy and infrastructure projects while Trump self-destructs. Trump’s previous popular vote losses indicate his limitations as a candidate and his ability to drive Republican losses. He may have the support of a plurality of the Republican base, but there are many Republicans who do not share the same admiration for him.
Roughly a third of Republicans are loyal Trump supporters who refuse to consider any other candidate for the nomination. Another third are open to an alternative to Trump and would welcome a plausible, electable option. This leaves a third group, the Open-Minded Middle, who like Trump but have concerns about his electability. They would rally around another candidate if the party united behind someone with a path to victory.
To win both the nomination and the general election, Republicans need a candidate who can gather support from Anybody But Trumpers, Open-Minded Middlers, independents, and swing voters. This candidate should be well-qualified, have a reputation for integrity, possess governance experience, be a proven conservative who can continue conservative policies, and have a strong connection to the party’s evangelical base. One candidate who fits this description is Mike Pence. He is the only candidate who checks all the boxes and has the most potential to win.
While other candidates like Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Will Hurd, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott have their strengths, they also have significant drawbacks that make them less plausible alternatives to Trump. Pence embodies the qualities that party insiders traditionally looked for in presidential candidates. It is crucial for party elders to invest in Pence’s campaign, boost his credibility, and signal their support if he performs well in early contests.
Strategic discipline is essential for Republicans in 2024. Learning from past mistakes, they should coalesce quickly around an alternative to Trump to increase their chances of success. Pence’s fate ultimately rests in his own hands. If he performs poorly or fails to resonate with voters, all the boosting in the world won’t save him. However, given his strengths, pundits and politicians should not be so quick to write him off. The stories of candidates like John McCain in 2008 and even Joe Biden in 2020 demonstrate the importance of electability to primary voters. For most Republicans, Pence presents the strongest option, and smart Republicans should start supporting him now before it’s too late.
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