By Jill Colvin and Linley Sanders | Associated Press
A recent poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals that Donald Trump’s popularity among Republicans continues to grow despite facing criminal charges. The survey shows that 63% of Republicans now want Trump to run for president again, up from 55% in April. Additionally, 70% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Trump, an increase from 60% two months ago.
However, the poll also raises concerns for Trump and his supporters. While 74% of Republicans would support him in the 2024 general election, 53% of all Americans state they would definitely not support him if he becomes the nominee. Another 11% say they would probably not support him. These findings highlight the challenges Trump would face when appealing to voters outside of the GOP base, as demonstrated by his loss in the popular vote in 2016 and his larger defeat to Joe Biden in 2020.
Some Republicans argue that Trump’s standing with the broader public has diminished since the last election due to his involvement in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot and ongoing legal troubles. Anti-Trump Republican strategist Sarah Longwell points out that there is a significant number of voters who have previously supported Trump but are now unable to do so in light of recent events.
Trump’s campaign spokesperson did not provide a comment on the poll’s findings, which were collected prior to Trump’s recent indictment in Georgia and now bring his total felony charges to 91 across multiple states.
In contrast, the poll reveals that opposition to President Joe Biden’s potential reelection is not as firmly entrenched. While 43% of Americans state they would definitely not support Biden in a general election, with an additional 11% leaning towards not supporting him, the numbers are lower compared to Trump’s figures.
Trump’s legal troubles have redirected his focus back to his grievances regarding the 2020 election. Despite the lack of credible evidence proving widespread fraud, Trump plans to present an “irrefutable” report on election fraud at an upcoming event.
While such appeals may resonate with GOP voters, they are less effective among independent and swing voters crucial in a general election, as evidenced by some losses for the Republican Party in the 2022 midterms.
Concerns about the impact of Trump’s indictments are evident among Republican voters at the Iowa State Fair. While many show support for Trump, there is also recognition of the potential consequences. Some express worry that the charges could prevent Trump from winning, while others believe they are politically-driven attempts to undermine him.
However, it may be premature to assume that Trump’s legal woes will lead to his political downfall. Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a 2016 GOP primary opponent of Trump, suggests that Trump’s positioning himself as a fighter against the establishment may actually resonate with voters who feel let down by the traditional system.
Newt Gingrich, former House Speaker and Trump ally, believes that the recent charges will enrage the nation and ultimately strengthen Trump’s chances, even in a general election.
Overall, the poll results reflect Trump’s continued strong support within the Republican Party but also highlight the challenges he would face in a general election. While his legal troubles raise concerns among some GOP voters, others believe that these challenges could solidify his appeal as an outsider and champion for the average American.
Associated Press writers Thomas Beaumont and Hannah Fingerhut in Des Moines, Iowa, contributed to this report.
The poll of 1,165 adults was conducted Aug. 10-14 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
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