Earth is bracing for an impending solar storm after three energy blasts from the sun are hurtling our way. With the arrival of these geomagnetic storms, the possibility of witnessing awe-inspiring northern lights increases.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) spotted an initial Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on Monday. CMEs occur when the sun releases a burst of energy due to a sunspot eruption. Although the first CME is approaching Earth, it’s expected to bypass the planet’s atmosphere.
Subsequently, on the same day, November 27, two more CMEs erupted from the sun and are on a collision course with Earth.
Lastly, on November 28, an intensely potent CME was discharged from the sun and is now headed directly toward Earth. NOAA’s space weather forecasters anticipate that this robust CME will intersect and combine with the second and third CMEs.
Rather than facing one CME, we are poised to encounter a conflation of three CMEs, culminating in a massive geomagnetic storm.
As per the forecast, the solar storm energy is projected to reach Earth on December 1, around and after Midnight. The northern third of the U.S., including Michigan, may witness the mesmerizing spectacle of the northern lights.
The extent of the solar energy’s impact on Earth’s atmosphere will determine the visibility of the northern lights. This is quantified using the Kp Index. The upcoming forecast indicates a peak Kp Index of seven between 1 a.m. and 4 a.m. Friday. The probability of a “strong-extreme” geomagnetic storm during this interval is estimated at 55 percent.
If the Kp Index reaches seven, northern lights could be visible in the northern half of Lower Michigan, extending from Bay City to Muskegon and points north. Additionally, parts of the southern half of Michigan might be treated to this celestial spectacle, provided they are in sufficiently dark areas.
The strength of a Kp index of seven implies that northern lights might even be visible in regions as far south as Indiana and Ohio.
However, this forecast is based solely on the time, direction, and estimated speed of the CMEs as they left the sun’s surface. A more accurate update will only be available when the solar storm is approximately an hour away from Earth’s atmosphere. In essence, a new forecast incorporating fresh data won’t be forthcoming until late Thursday evening.
Clear skies are essential to witness this spectacle, and fortunately, Michigan might experience just that late Thursday evening and early Friday morning. It appears likely that an approaching storm won’t obstruct the view until between 3 a.m. and 6 a.m. Friday. A comprehensive cloud forecast will be provided tomorrow.
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