Health authorities are actively monitoring the spread of three new variants of COVID-19 that are currently circulating in the country. While COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths remain lower than previous peaks, they have been steadily rising for several weeks. Public health officials assure that they are prepared for the seasonal increase in the virus, as COVID-19 tests and vaccines are expected to be effective against these variants.
However, the emergence of a highly mutated variant has raised concerns among virus trackers about what the future holds. Let’s take a closer look at the current COVID-19 variants and their characteristics.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) regularly publishes projections of the dominant COVID-19 variants in the country. The most prevalent variant, known as EG.5, accounts for the largest share of new COVID-19 cases. It is estimated that EG.5 made up 20.6% of new infections on August 18th. Another variant, FL.1.5.1, is the second-largest strain, representing 13.3% of U.S. infections. Both EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 are descendants of the XBB strains that were dominant last winter and share a mutation known as F456L, which appears to enhance their transmissibility.
In addition to these variants, health authorities have also been monitoring a highly mutated strain called BA.2.86. Although its prevalence is currently low and not reflected in CDC estimates, this variant’s numerous mutations in key parts of the virus have prompted investigations into its potential risks.
Concerning symptoms, there is no evidence to suggest significant changes caused by the EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 variants compared to their Omicron predecessors. COVID-19 symptoms, including cough, headache, muscle aches, runny nose, and fatigue, have remained largely consistent. As for BA.2.86, it is too early to determine if it will cause more severe illness due to its high number of mutations. Reported cases of BA.2.86 have exhibited mild symptoms without any significant deviations from typical COVID-19 symptoms.
In terms of testing, current COVID-19 tests are believed to be effective against these new variants. The ongoing joint effort between the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the National Institutes of Health has not identified any major issues with EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 variants that would affect test performance. Although the BA.2.86 variant’s significant mutations may impact testing if it becomes more prevalent, further studies are necessary to confirm this.
Regarding vaccines, manufacturers anticipate that the upcoming COVID-19 vaccine and booster shots will be effective against EG.5 and FL.1.5.1, as they are closely related to the XBB.1.5 variant targeted by the revised shots. Moderna’s preliminary results suggest their updated vaccines can trigger a significant boost in neutralizing antibodies against these variants, and Pfizer’s recent study in mice also indicates effectiveness. The CDC expects the fall updated vaccines with a monovalent XBB.1.5 composition to provide the best protection, although the impact of BA.2.86 remains uncertain. Experts speculate that BA.2.86’s mutations might render the upcoming shots less effective if it becomes more prevalent.
For now, the FDA does not see a need to change the COVID vaccine recipe for this season, and there are no plans to discuss alternative compositions until preparations for next year’s vaccination campaign are underway.
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