A new study has revealed that a warming climate is causing major snowfalls to turn into intense rain over mountains, exacerbating dangerous flooding and water shortages. Scientists used rain and snow data from 1950 and computer simulations to determine that for every degree Fahrenheit of warming, extreme rainfall at higher elevations increases by 8.3% (15% for every degree Celsius). The findings, published in the journal Nature, highlight the significant impact of heavy rain in mountains, including flooding, landslides, and erosion. Unlike snowpack, rain does not get stored and cannot recharge reservoirs. This phenomenon is already occurring and needs immediate attention.
Lead author Mohammed Ombadi, a hydrologist and climate scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, emphasized that the data shows this problem is already happening. With global temperatures nearing the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold, Ombadi stated that “every degree Celsius matters because it comes with an additional 15% increase” in extreme rain over mountains. This rainfall increase is more than twice the global average. The study focused on the heaviest rains in the Northern Hemisphere over the past sixty years and observed a significant rise in rainfall with altitude, particularly around 10,000 feet.
Ombadi also noted that one in four people live in areas that could be affected by extreme rain and flooding from mountains. This poses significant risks, such as the devastating flood in Pakistan that claimed over 1,700 lives and submerged one-third of the country. Park Williams, a climate hydrologist from UCLA, explained that while warmer temperatures lead to more precipitation, heavy snow mitigates flooding because it melts gradually and can be monitored. However, as the proportion of mountain precipitation falling as snow decreases, the risk of rapid flood hazards increases. As a response, society will have to make difficult choices regarding water use and the construction of new reservoirs to handle sudden mountain runoff events.
(Read more extreme weather stories.)
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