In Tuscaloosa, the calendar follows a familiar pattern.
Year after year, the Tennessee game falls on the Third Saturday in October, a tradition that dates back to 1928. The final week of October is a bye week, a common occurrence during the Nick Saban era, conveniently coinciding with Saban’s Halloween birthday. (The cupcakes are saved for the Saturday before the Iron Bowl at Bryant-Denny stadium.) And then, after the bye, it’s time to face LSU.
Saban sticks to this calendar as faithfully as he does to his beloved Little Debbie Oatmeal Creme Pies. And for the most part, it’s served him well; Alabama’s legacy in sports is secure.
However, in recent years—coinciding with Kirby Smart and the rise of the University of Georgia—Saban has found himself playing catch-up. In-season losses over the past three seasons have put Alabama in a precarious position heading into Thanksgiving, no longer the dominant force they once were.
Last year, Alabama stumbled into the bye week in a daze after suffering their first-ever loss to Tennessee during Saban’s tenure. (You may have heard about the Tennessee goalposts incident.) The Tide then started November with a disappointing loss to LSU, effectively ending their hopes for the playoffs. Saban campaigned vigorously for Alabama’s inclusion in the playoffs, but he came off as desperate, a demeanor we’d never seen from him before.
The 2022 loss to LSU, combined with this year’s September loss to Texas, makes this weekend’s matchup between the Tide and Tigers even more significant for Alabama. The desire for revenge is palpable; Saban doesn’t take kindly to being bested. Two weeks ago, Alabama crushed Tennessee’s hopes of a winning streak with an impressive comeback, scoring 27 unanswered points in the second half. Now, it’s time for the LSU rematch.
“I think this has developed into sort of a rivalry game because they’re always ranked, we’re always ranked,” Saban stated on Monday. “It’s always a big game in our division. It’s an important game for both teams.”
The tactical aspects of the game are crucial; it’s a clash of titans. LSU boasts the most potent offense in the country, averaging 47.4 points per game. Quarterback Jayden Daniels is just one win away from becoming a Heisman frontrunner. “He was a thorn in our side last year,” Saban admitted. “He was an incredible player then, and he’s an incredible player now. Their execution on offense is near perfection, and it all starts with him.”
The Tide defense, ranked second in the SEC behind Georgia, has been exceptional, allowing only 16.5 points per game. They showcased their dominance by shutting out Tennessee in the second half of their last game. On the other hand, Alabama’s offense is more suspect; Jalen Milroe is gaining confidence, but the question remains whether his offensive line will give him enough time to create plays. However, there are opportunities; LSU’s defense ranks ahead of only Vanderbilt and South Carolina in points and yards allowed within the SEC. Their vulnerable secondary, ranked 93rd, will be exposed to Milroe’s ability to complete 20-plus-yard passes, which he has done with increasing accuracy throughout the season.
Saban never feels at ease, especially when facing a dangerous LSU team with two losses, determined to salvage their pride and dent the Alabama dynasty. “Brian Kelly has done an outstanding job with this team,” Saban praised, genuinely acknowledging the improvements made since last season. “They were a good team last year, and they’re an even better team this year based on what they’ve accomplished and how they perform.”
The initial College Football Playoff rankings have Alabama at eighth, as anticipated. However, these rankings offer a clear path for Alabama. Georgia holds the second spot, and there are no other SEC teams separating them from the Tide. The way forward is obvious: A one-loss Alabama team with victories against LSU this week and Georgia in the SEC championship game would have a strong case for a playoff berth. However, a loss at any point between now and the end of the season would shatter any hopes. In other words, regardless of what the calendar says, Alabama’s playoffs began several weeks ago.
Lastly, a fun fact about Alabama’s calendar: Spring semester classes don’t start until after the second Monday in January. Administrators openly admit that this is intentional; they expect the football team to still be playing at that time. Alabama has a long to-do list ahead, but their path is crystal clear.
