As temperatures fall and a second winter of war approaches, Ukraine is concerned that support for its cause is waning. Slovakia has stopped providing military aid after pro-Russian Robert Fico’s party gained power. Poland, one of Ukraine’s strongest allies, had already suspended weapon transfers due to a disagreement over Kyiv’s grain exports, although this may change after the opposition claimed victory in recent elections. Currently, the United States is focused on the Middle East, which allows Russia to divert attention away from Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, expressed support for Israel amidst the recent conflict with Hamas. However, he also cautioned that there is a limited amount of military support available. Competition for certain weapons may arise. Zelenskiy also acknowledged the uncertainty brought by next year’s US presidential election. Ukrainian aid was removed from a government funding package last month, as some hardline Republicans oppose further assistance, and their stance is gaining momentum. Some argue that the US cannot afford to support Ukraine when involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, supporters of Ukraine hope to pass a joint Israel-Ukraine package. While the US will continue to provide deliveries for now, Kyiv may need to ration its use of weapons if timely resupplies cannot be guaranteed.
Earlier this month, European leaders, including Emmanuel Macron, assured Ukraine that their support would not diminish. However, as the EU foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, pointed out, Europe cannot completely fill the gap left by the US. Logistics and low arms inventories contribute to this challenge.
Ukraine’s recent use of US-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles against Russian-held airbases provided a morale boost. However, their counteroffensive has made limited progress. Moscow continues to find new sources of manpower, and the White House claims that North Korea has sent weapons to Russia. A meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in Beijing underscores China’s unwavering economic and diplomatic support. Russia believes that persistence will drain Ukrainian morale, supplies, and troops while improving their own odds as the US shifts its focus.
The concern is not only Russia’s hold on territory, but also the potential for a renewed attack on Ukraine’s power grid to force submission. Despite efforts by engineers, the system has not fully recovered to prewar capacity.
At a time when solidarity with Ukraine is critical, unconditional Western support for Israel’s actions in Gaza has caused significant damage, say diplomats. While Russia initiated an unprovoked invasion, Israel is responding to the killing of at least 1,300 of its citizens by Hamas. However, the unwavering backing of Joe Biden and the selective condemnation of Russia’s targeting of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, but not in Gaza, by EU commission president Ursula von der Leyen have been noticed. This discrepancy is particularly stark as the death toll of Palestinian civilians grows, and Russia and others will exploit it.
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