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Frans Timmermans, the European climate commissioner, has stepped down from his position after being nominated as a candidate for prime minister of the Netherlands. Timmermans aims to unite the left-wing parties in the country, in an effort to address the highly fragmented political system in Europe.
Timmermans, who leads a combined campaign by the Labour party (PvdA) and the Greens, is currently leading in the polls ahead of the general elections in November. However, he will need the support of at least three other parties to form a government, as the Socialists and the liberal Democrats 66 party are polling in single digits and will not be enough to secure a majority.
In 2014, Timmermans gained international recognition when he delivered a powerful speech at the UN as the Dutch foreign minister, following the tragic downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 by Russian-backed separatist forces. The Netherlands lost 196 nationals in this incident.
Since 2019, Timmermans has been a strong advocate for the EU’s “green deal” to reduce carbon emissions, serving as the vice-president of the European Commission. He has been actively engaging with countries around the world to encourage them to fulfill their climate commitments.
The European Commission has announced that Maroš Šefčovič will temporarily assume Timmermans’ responsibilities until a replacement is nominated by The Hague. EU commissioners must step down from their posts if they participate in national politics.
The Dutch elections were called after Prime Minister Mark Rutte resigned in July due to disagreements over immigration within the coalition. Rutte, who has resigned three times and formed four different coalitions in the past 13 years, has ruled out another term. His liberal VVD party is currently polling second, just behind the alliance led by Timmermans.
Under the leadership of Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, the VVD has taken a more rightward stance. Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, who previously served as the justice minister, has adopted stricter immigration policies, despite being a child refugee from Turkey herself. Her support for limits on family reunions for asylum seekers resulted in the collapse of Rutte’s previous coalition.
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The Netherlands’ political landscape is crowded, with about 20 parties vying for seats. The Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), an upstart party, poses the biggest challenge to the Labour and Green parties. Currently, there is no threshold to enter the Dutch parliament, resulting in 21 political groups and independent representatives sitting in the lower house of 150 members.
The BBB gained significant attention when it won a fifth of the vote in provincial elections earlier this year. However, its popularity has since declined as it capitalized on mass farmer protests against government plans to reduce pollution through animal rearing. According to the latest polls by Europe Elects, the BBB’s support has dropped to 17% from over 25% in the early summer.
In the liberal camp, Sigrid Kaag, the leader and finance minister of the D66 party, has also stepped down. Climate minister Rob Jetten has taken over the leadership position. Kaag is a potential candidate for the European commissioner role.
Policymakers across the EU are closely observing the Dutch elections in preparation for the European Parliament elections next June, which are expected to see gains for right-wing groups.
In an attempt to form a government, Yeşilgöz-Zegerius has not ruled out collaborating with the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV). During Rutte’s first term as prime minister, he formed a coalition with PVV’s support for two years. PVV, led by Geert Wilders, is currently polling fourth and has faced threats on Wilders’ life due to his anti-Islam rhetoric, leading the Dutch government to provide him with a security detail.