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Like Joe Biden’s rise to the presidency, Donald Trump’s indictment for unlawfully handling classified documents and obstructing justice presents a partial answer to a major question in American politics: Can the country’s institutions rein in his excessive behavior?
The backlash generated by the indictment raises another question: What happens when they do rein him in? When Trump was defeated, his armed supporters stormed the Capitol, assaulting police officers and chanting “Hang Mike Pence,” in an attempt to block the transfer of power. Shortly after his indictment last week, there was a surge in threats and even calls for civil war on social media platforms used by his supporters.
The violent rhetoric is not just limited to grassroots level. Arizona Republican Kari Lake declared that “to get to President Trump, you’re going to have to go through me, and you’re going to have to go through 75 million Americans just like me… Most of us are card-carrying members of the NRA [National Rifle Association].” Trump himself has previously warned of “death and destruction” if he were indicted in a separate case involving hush money payments.
Such bluster is aimed at deterring action against him, despite the compelling evidence presented in the indictment, including the now-familiar photo of stacked boxes in a bathroom. It is crucial not to succumb to hysteria or fatalism when considering the threats facing US democracy. While it is true that the direst predictions did not materialize after the 2020 election, research conducted last year found that over two in five Americans believe a civil war is at least somewhat likely within the next decade. The number of people who believe violence would be justified to restore Trump to the White House has decreased since last year, but still stands at 12 million individuals. An increasingly divided country is also heavily armed, with nearly 400 million privately owned guns, primarily owned by white, male, and Republican individuals. According to a study, almost 3% of adults, or 7.5 million people, purchased a firearm for the first time between January 2019 and April 2021.
Several analysts have cautioned that the US may be heading towards widespread political violence. Professor Barbara Walter notes in her book “How Civil Wars Start” that two key conditions are necessary: ethnic factionalism and anocracy, which refers to a country that is neither fully democratic nor fully autocratic. She believes that the US meets the former condition and remains close to the latter, even if the immediate threat has diminished somewhat since 2021. Others have backed away from the notion of civil war, but believe that major civil disruption is entirely feasible.
No one predicts a direct confrontation between opposing forces like in the 1860s, or a geographical split. What some experts fear is a guerrilla-style asymmetric conflict waged by a decentralized movement, with small groups or lone attackers targeting minority groups, such as synagogues or gay clubs, as well as civilians, infrastructure, and figures like Democratic politicians, judges, and election officials. Trumpism should be seen not as the driving force behind such a conflict, but as a catalyst. People would not be fighting for Trump per se, but because they believe he represents them. And if not him, another figurehead may emerge.
There was no outbreak of violence during the indictment hearing in Miami, as some had feared. Key figures on the extreme right are now imprisoned, with over 1,000 people charged in connection to the events of January 6, and hundreds of them incarcerated. Others reportedly feel abandoned by Trump. Nevertheless, the growth of threats and political violence in recent years is undeniable. It is indisputable by now that the language used by Trump and his supporters increases the likelihood of such incidents.
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