The recent history of the Iowa Republican caucus holds both reasons for optimism and concern for candidates vying to succeed former President Donald Trump. In the past three contested GOP nomination fights, Iowa Republicans have rejected the national front-runner in favor of an alternative candidate who relied on support from the state’s influential group of evangelical Christian conservatives. However, those three previous winners failed to secure the Republican presidential nomination or come close to winning it in the end. This pattern sets the stage for the upcoming Iowa caucus and underscores the importance of defeating Trump to have any chance of denying him the nomination.
While beating Trump in Iowa is crucial, candidates must also recognize that simply appealing to evangelical Christian conservatives may limit their appeal outside of Iowa. The strategy of targeting this specific group may help secure victory in Iowa but make it challenging to win support in later states. It’s essential to build a broad coalition of voters to have a chance at securing the nomination.
Considering the history, candidates who can attract a significant share of non-evangelical voters will likely have the best shot at long-term viability. The candidate who has won the most support among non-evangelical voters in Iowa has gone on to secure the GOP nomination in previous races, with the exception of when John McCain did not compete in Iowa in 2008. A successful candidate needs a coalition similar to the combination of Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in the 2016 Iowa caucus – support from evangelical Christians and non-evangelicals.
Can any of Trump’s rivals assemble such a coalition to pose a threat to him in Iowa and beyond? Trump retains passionate supporters in the state, as evidenced by his enthusiastic reception at the Iowa State Fair. While he has campaigned less in the state than his leading rivals, Trump holds a significant lead in recent polls. However, there may be a larger group of Iowa Republicans open to considering an alternative to Trump than current polls suggest. Conversations with likely caucus-goers at the fair revealed a number of individuals expressing weariness with him and a desire for a different choice to have a better chance against President Joe Biden.
As candidates strive to reach voters ready to move past Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is investing significant time and resources into developing a traditional Iowa organization. His campaign and the Never Back Down Super PAC are working to build a strong ground game in the state.
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