These hair-raising heat maps unveil the countries that could potentially become uninhabitable if global temperatures rise by just 1.5°C (2.7°F). According to researchers, around 2.2 billion individuals in the Indus River Valley of Pakistan and India, 1 billion in eastern China, and 800 million in sub-Saharan Africa would face heat levels that surpass human tolerance. Even parts of the US, particularly the eastern and central regions, could experience sweltering temperatures if Earth’s temperatures increase by 3°C (5.4°F) from pre-industrial levels. A recent study conducted by Penn State University showcases the impact of extreme heat on regions such as Florida, New York, Houston, Chicago, South America, and Australia.
Living in these areas would entail enduring dangerous levels of humidity, which could lead to health risks like heart attacks and heat strokes. Therefore, it’s crucial to take note of these alarming heat maps that depict the potential future of these countries if global temperatures continue to rise. In particular, regions like Florida, New York, Houston, and Chicago could face stifling conditions due to excessive humidity if temperatures rise by 3°C (5.4°F) from pre-industrial levels. To better understand the impact of rising temperatures, maps q and r demonstrate the warming scenarios at 1.5°C and 2°C.
But what exactly is the wet-bulb temperature? This measurement is determined by attaching a wet cloth to a thermometer bulb. It fluctuates based on the combination of temperature and humidity. If the wet-bulb temperature surpasses 103°F, the body’s cooling system becomes ineffective. It is considered dangerous by the US National Weather Service, and if it exceeds 124°F, it poses an extreme danger. In such circumstances, heatstroke can lead to severe damage to the brain, heart, kidneys, and muscles. At a temperature of just 90°F, combined with 95% humidity, the wet-bulb temperature can reach the threshold of extreme danger at 124°F. However, with lower humidity (around 45%), the actual temperature would need to soar to scorching 104°F to reach the extreme danger boundary. Even a wet-bulb temperature of just 35°C can be fatal to a person within hours, even for the fittest individuals. This means that not only the elderly, children, and those with health issues are vulnerable, but a warming climate could potentially put billions more at risk.
As the body adapts to increasing heat and humidity by sweating and increasing blood flow to the skin to cool down, there is a limit to its ability to cope. At certain levels of heat and humidity, these adjustments become insufficient, causing the body’s core temperature to rise. It is not an immediate threat but necessitates relief. Failure to cool down within hours can lead to heat exhaustion, heatstroke, and strain on the cardiovascular system, potentially resulting in heart attacks for vulnerable individuals.
The scorching heatwaves experienced this summer in the US, Europe, and China have once again highlighted the limit to which people can withstand heat. Previous research from Penn State University showed that the upper temperature limit for human safety is lower than previously believed. While it was initially thought that a wet-bulb temperature of 95°F (35°C) – equivalent to a temperature of 95°F at 100% humidity or 115°F at 50% humidity – was the upper limit, recent studies suggest that the actual limit is 87°F (31°C) at 100% humidity or 100°F (38°C) at 60% humidity. It is crucial to understand that it’s not just about the temperature reading on the thermometer but rather the combination of heat and humidity, defined as the wet-bulb temperature.
Throughout history, there have been only a few instances where temperatures and humidity exceeded human limits, and even then, it lasted only a few hours. These occurrences were observed in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Since the Industrial Revolution, global temperatures have risen by approximately 1°C (1.8°F) as a result of human activities like burning fossil fuels. To combat the consequences of climate change, 196 nations signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, aiming to limit global temperature increases to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels.
Heatstroke occurs when the body can no longer cool itself, causing the body temperature to dangerously rise due to prolonged exposure to direct sunlight. Symptoms include confusion, altered mental state, slurred speech, lack of sweating, loss of consciousness, dry or profuse sweating, seizures, nausea or vomiting, very high body temperature, dizziness, headache, and a rapid, strong pulse.
The recent study modeled various global temperature increases ranging from 1.5°C (2.7°F) to 4°C (7.2°F), representing the worst-case scenario where warming would accelerate. The objective was to identify regions where rising temperatures would result in heat and humidity levels surpassing human limits. If global warming is not addressed, parts of India, Pakistan, China, and sub-Saharan Africa would face heatwaves accompanied by high humidity. This combination is particularly perilous as it restricts the body’s capacity to sweat and evaporate moisture effectively. What’s concerning is that many of the areas that would be severely impacted are in low-to-middle-income nations that may lack access to air conditioning. In the worst-case scenario of a 4°C (7.2°F) temperature increase, the port city of Al Hudaydah in Yemen, home to over 700,000 people, would become almost uninhabitable. With temperatures exceeding human tolerance for nearly 300 days of the year, the conditions would be unbearable. Co-author Matthew Huber of Purdue University points out that the areas most affected by extreme heat will be those that are less wealthy and anticipate rapid population growth in the coming decades. These nations generate fewer greenhouse gas emissions compared to wealthier nations, so billions of people in impoverished circumstances could suffer, with potential fatalities. Additionally, even wealthy nations will feel the negative consequences of this heat, highlighting the interconnectedness of the world.
If global temperatures continue to rise, approximately 800 million people in sub-Saharan Africa would face heat levels beyond human tolerance. The heat maps portray the potential conditions in different warming scenarios, such as a 1.5°C or 2°C increase. The same applies to those residing on the Arab Gulf coast. It is clear from these maps that regions around the globe could become sweltering hot and unbearable to live in.
To cope with rising temperatures, people may engage in various methods of cooling themselves, such as using fountains or electric fans. However, it is vital to comprehend the gravity of the situation and take necessary precautions to address this imminent threat to human life.
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