Determining Trustworthy Player Performance: What Sample Sizes are Considered Large Enough?

Keaton Mitchell, the Baltimore Ravens running back, proved victorious in his last two games by scoring touchdowns, undoubtedly boosting the spirits of fantasy managers who included him in their lineups (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images).

Scientifically, determining the right number of experimental subjects is important in achieving desired conclusions. The same goes for fantasy sports gaming where we wish to decipher the true potential of a player. Despite this, statistical and time-series analyses have negligible relevance when applied to the complexity of fantasy sports.

In football, the condition differs in every game due to various factors such as time, weather, game scripts, and player usage. Consequently, we may never accurately predict a player’s performance based on a small sample size of games.

Keaton Mitchell, a promising rookie, led the waiver wire ahead of Week 10 with 172 rushing yards, two touchdowns, and 28 receiving yards in the last two games. He has the potential to be a valuable asset and was added in less than 5% of leagues. AFC North rivalry awaits him in Week 11, potentially solidifying his starting spot.

De’Von Achane showcased an impressive performance with 527 total yards and seven touchdowns in just four matches, as did Williams who scored seven touchdowns before injury. On the flip side, Levis had a phenomenal debut yet struggled in the following games. In contrast, quarterback Stroud has undeniably proven his worth in his nine game appearances.

Stay tuned for my next segment about players who’ve changed teams or returned after an injury hiatus.

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