Democratic candidates achieved decisive victories in special state legislative elections in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire on Tuesday night. This victory is yet another success for the Democratic party in special contests, indicating a promising outlook for the 2024 elections. Additionally, these wins improve the Democrats’ chances of maintaining control over two swing state legislative chambers.
Democratic candidate, Lindsay Powell, a former congressional aide, won in a safe blue seat in Pittsburgh, enabling the party to maintain its slim majority of 102-101 in the state’s House of Representatives. Meanwhile, Republicans control the state Senate and the governor’s office is held by Democrat Josh Shapiro.
In New Hampshire, Democrat Hal Rafter secured victory in a closely divided seat northeast of Manchester, narrowing the Republican’s edge in the state house to just 198 Republicans to 197 Democrats. With Democrats heavily favored in an upcoming special election in November, there is a possibility that they could soon share control of the chamber and break the GOP’s trifecta on state government.
Although these individual victories cannot provide a comprehensive assessment of the overall political landscape, they contribute to the prevailing trend of Democrats outperforming their 2020 election results and the outcomes of the 2022 midterms in special elections held this year. This trend became evident following the Dobbs decision on abortion rights and has since gained momentum.
For instance, in the New Hampshire district, former President Donald Trump narrowly won in 2020. However, Rafter secured a convincing 56% to 44% victory over the GOP nominee, Jim Guzofski.
In Pennsylvania, Biden won the seat by a 22 percentage point margin, already considered a landslide. Powell’s victory exceeded expectations by defeating Republican Erin Autenreith by a significant 30 percentage points.
According to the latest calculations from FiveThirtyEight, Democrats have improved upon the base partisanship of districts by an impressive 11 percentage points throughout the 30 state legislative special elections held this year.
Despite Biden’s low approval rating, these special election results offer a glimmer of hope for Democrats heading into the 2024 elections. However, it is crucial to note that the correlation between special and general election results is not flawless. Furthermore, the ongoing trend of college-educated voters, who are more likely to participate in non-traditional elections, leaning towards the Democratic party is undoubtedly advantageous for Democrats.
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