Pennsylvanians will vote on a new state Supreme Court justice on November 7th. This election is significant as it reflects the ongoing political fallout from the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June 2022. The decision shifted the power to regulate abortion to the states, leading Democrats to focus heavily on the issue in races across the country. State judicial races, including the one in Pennsylvania, have become particularly important battlegrounds for debates on the legality of abortion.
The race in Pennsylvania is between Democratic nominee Daniel McCaffery, currently a Superior Court Judge, and Republican nominee Carolyn Carluccio, a Judge in the Montgomery County Court of Common Pleas. This race is seen as a test case to gauge the effectiveness of the anti-abortion message leading up to the 2024 presidential election. J.J. Abbott, executive director of Commonwealth Communications and spokesperson for the campaign to elect McCaffery, believes that this race will determine if abortion and democracy can drive voter performance.
In the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats campaigned heavily on abortion to counter the expected “red wave” of Republican victories. However, the wave did not materialize, and Republicans only narrowly gained control of the U.S. House, lost a Senate seat, and faced losses in swing states like Pennsylvania. The outcome of the McCaffery-Carluccio race will not change the current 4-2 advantage held by Democrats in the state Supreme Court. However, it could potentially set the stage for a Republican takeover or secure Democratic control for the future, depending on the outcome.
Polling conducted by Franklin & Marshall College in 2022 shows that the majority of Pennsylvanians support the right to an abortion. Nearly 90% of registered voters in the state believe abortion should be legal in some or all cases, and three-fifths oppose a constitutional amendment to ban abortion. While Carluccio has not been vocal about her position on abortion, she has received endorsements from state-level anti-abortion groups. McCaffery, on the other hand, has strongly supported abortion access and criticized the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision.
The outcome of this election is crucial, as changes to the state court’s composition could impact the legality of abortion in Pennsylvania. There are ongoing challenges to existing abortion laws in the state, including a lawsuit seeking to overturn the ban on Medicaid funding for abortions. Republicans in the state legislature have also introduced a constitutional amendment to ban abortions, which could become law if they regain control.
This election has implications beyond Pennsylvania’s borders. Since the Supreme Court’s decision, 24 states have implemented strict limits or bans on abortion or are likely to do so as lawsuits progress through their court systems. Residents of those states, including neighboring Ohio and West Virginia, have had to seek abortion care elsewhere.
Planned Parenthood and other reproductive rights advocates have joined forces to fund a large-scale advertising and grassroots campaign in support of McCaffery. Planned Parenthood Votes, the organization’s political arm, is making its largest-ever investment in a state Supreme Court race with a seven-figure ad buy. They are also backed by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and various grassroots efforts to turn out voters.
In addition to abortion, voting rights and democracy-related issues are also prominent in the campaign. Pennsylvania was one of the swing states targeted by former President Donald Trump in his attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Challenges to voting procedures and attempts to invalidate ballots were consistently rejected by the state Supreme Court. Similar challenges are expected in the lead-up to the 2024 election. Carluccio has expressed opposition to the state law that legalized mail-in voting, while McCaffery supports including more votes rather than disqualifying them on technicalities.
The court’s decisions will also impact other important issues, such as public school funding, criminal defendants’ rights, oil and gas leasing, environmental issues, and gerrymandering. Many of these cases will have a long-term impact on Pennsylvania. As Democrats continue to prioritize abortion in their campaign messaging, it remains to be seen if this strategy will resonate with voters and influence the outcome of the election.
