By 2033, the travel industry is projected to reach a staggering $15.5 / €14.2 trillion, representing more than 11.6% of the global economy. This marks a significant increase of 50% from its value of $10/€9.2 trillion in 2019, when travel accounted for 10.4% of the world’s gross domestic product.
These findings come from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the leading organization dedicated to measuring the economic impact of the industry. While the data was initially released in May as part of a 2023 World Economic Impact report on travel, it has only recently become widely circulated.
The report breaks down the economic contributions of the world’s major tourism markets and reveals the top five most powerful travel and tourism economies as of 2022 in terms of GDP contribution. These top five nations remain unchanged from before 2019: the US, China, Germany, UK, and Japan. However, Japan has overtaken the UK in the latest rankings. The remaining countries in the top 10 include France, Mexico, Italy, India, and Spain.
In addition to GDP contribution, the report also highlights the impact of travel and tourism on the labor market. By 2033, the industry is expected to employ up to 430 million people, compared to 334 million in 2019. This means that approximately one in every nine jobs globally will be directly or indirectly related to the travel industry.
What sets travel apart from the rest of the global economy is not only its enormous size but also its rapid growth. While economists predict an average annual growth rate of 2.6% for the global GDP, the travel and tourism sector is expected to grow at a much faster pace of around 5.1%.
The WTTC’s Julia Simpson, President and CEO, emphasizes that significant changes are on the horizon. According to projections, China will surpass the US as the world’s largest travel economy within the next 10 years. The Chinese travel sector is set to contribute $4 trillion to the Chinese economy, accounting for 14.1% of its GDP by 2033. In comparison, the US industry is projected to reach $3/€3.7 trillion, making up 10.1% of its economy. These figures include both international spending within each country and domestic spending on travel abroad.
The delayed return of Chinese travelers, due to extended border closures and processing delays, has affected global outbound travel spending. However, other regions, such as Latin America, North America, and Europe, have driven a strong recovery. The WTTC’s report reveals that the industry is on track to almost reach 2019 levels by the end of this year.
Once Chinese travelers fully return, a significant wave of growth is expected to occur. By 2033, the Chinese share of global outbound travel spending is predicted to reach 22.3%. As a sign of recovery, Hainan Airlines has already resumed its direct flights between Dublin Airport and Beijing.
Despite economic uncertainty, there is a strong desire to travel among people, who prioritize spending on travel. Luxury travel advisory network, Virtuoso, reported a 69% increase in sales during the first half of 2023 compared to 2019 levels. Furthermore, there has been a 107% increase in bookings for 2024 and early 2025, indicating increased confidence and planning for future travel.
Virtuoso’s data also highlights a surge in nature-based travel, including scientific expeditions to places like Antarctica and the Galapagos. The WTTC’s Simpson concurs, noting that while there is a return to cities, there is also a growing appetite for lesser-known destinations like Bulgaria and Slovenia. Travelers are becoming more adventurous and eager to explore unique places.
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