Thirty-four years ago, in June 1989, Poland woke up to a surprising turn of events. Despite a voting process that favored the Communist Party, years of propaganda, and control over the military and police, the democratic opposition emerged victorious, forming the first non-Communist government in Soviet-occupied Europe. Over the next decade, Poland gradually decentralized the state and established a democracy.
Today, Poland experienced a similar surprise. Since 2015, the nationalist-conservative party Law and Justice (PiS) has manipulated state media, used state companies for political funding, and politicized the state administration. In this election, they manipulated electoral laws and leaked top-secret military documents for electoral gain. Despite these efforts, PiS only secured a third of the vote, while three opposition parties are likely to form a parliamentary majority and create a center-right/center-left coalition. This election demonstrates that autocratic populism can be defeated, even after an unfair election. The rise of autocracy or decline of democracy is not inevitable. It emphasizes the importance of political and civic organization in effecting change.
This election, although not a world-historical turning point like the one in 1989, could represent a significant shift. Previous failures of democratic coalitions in Hungary, Turkey, and Israel had raised doubts about the possibility of democratic change in Poland. However, this election proves that these doubts were unfounded. The turnout in this election reached record numbers, with over 73 percent of Poles casting their votes. Positive emotions, such as civic patriotism, and anger towards PiS corruption scandals and economic conditions, played a role in motivating voters. Additionally, the opposition’s focus on women’s rights and unity, as well as their support for Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees, attracted voters. The return to the center of European politics is another significant aspect of this election, which will likely lead to better relations with the European Union and involvement in European policymaking.
While challenges remain, such as building and maintaining coalitions and dealing with the impact of PiS’s control over state institutions, Poland is in a better position than if PiS had won. Convincing PiS voters to change their perspectives will take time, but the victory of the opposition provides hope for the future.
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