PHOENIX — The tension grew as Phillies manager Rob Thomson locked eyes with his catcher, J.T. Realmuto, and gestured with his hand. With the entire game falling apart under a series of mistakes, Realmuto was tasked with stalling in the eighth inning. However, the task seemed impossible as a three-run lead vanished and their respected closer stood helplessly on the mound. It was clear at that moment that the Phillies had lost control of the National League Championship Series. Sensing the need for a change, Thomson instructed his pitching coach, Caleb Cotham, to call José Alvarado from the bullpen for a left-on-left matchup against Arizona’s best hitter, Corbin Carroll.
Realmuto utilized every second of the mound visit granted to him, while Craig Kimbrel glanced over at the dugout. However, Thomson stood his ground and refused to move. “Honestly,” Thomson later shared after the devastating 6-5 loss to the Diamondbacks in Game 4, “we were trying to avoid using Alvarado if possible.”
However, every decision leading up to that moment had signaled that the Phillies were going all-in for Game 4. Starting Cristopher Sánchez after a 20-day layoff, carrying two pitchers on the roster that the Phillies were hesitant to use, and relying on multiple setup relievers to pitch more than one inning all conveyed the team’s commitment to secure a victory. They were determined to win a game by giving their all.
Before the NLCS began, the Phillies had identified the Alvarado-Carroll matchup as favorable. It was their best against Arizona’s best. Thomson was relentless with his pitching changes, constantly pushing for the optimal situation, until he allowed Kimbrel to face Carroll. Perhaps the outcome had already been determined, or perhaps not. In any case, Kimbrel hit Carroll with a first-pitch 95 mph fastball, setting the stage for the eventual winning run. Alvarado was then brought in and allowed the go-ahead run on his fifth pitch. Anguish filled the air, and Thomson acknowledged, “We have to play better baseball. That’s all there is to it.”
After the game, Thomson sat at his desk with Dombrowski and Fuld, analyzing the mistakes that had been made. These post-game meetings were customary for the Phillies, but this time there was much more to discuss. With the series now tied 2-2, there were legitimate questions about how the Phillies should proceed. “The game is over,” Nick Castellanos remarked optimistically, “but now it’s a best-of-three series and we have home-field advantage.”
However, there is also another perspective to consider. The Phillies had the advantage in pitching for Games 3 and 4, yet they failed to capitalize on it. They possessed a deeper bullpen than the Diamondbacks, yet they lost Game 4 where the opposing team used eight pitchers. There is also the issue of Kimbrel and the fact that four relievers had pitched on back-to-back days, with a third game in three days looming. The Diamondbacks were equally depleted, as their top four relievers had also pitched in both Games 3 and 4. The performances of Zack Wheeler and Zac Gallen in Game 5 would likely determine the fate of the entire series. However, both pitchers are unlikely to throw a complete game as no pitcher has achieved that in a postseason game for six years.
“Wheeler must take the ball and carry his team,” there is no other choice for the Phillies now. Despite his strong performance thus far in the postseason, Wheeler has struggled in the late innings, allowing runs after the sixth frame in all three outings. It remains uncertain who Thomson can rely on in the later innings. Kimbrel is unlikely to be used, and the rookie reliever Orion Kerkering, who struggled with control, is also out of the equation for Game 5. Thomson acknowledged the need for discussion and consultation with his pitching coach, Caleb. The Phillies might have to consider using Seranthony Domínguez and Matt Strahm, who both have had recent appearances in the series. However, striking a balance between player safety and performance will be crucial.
Thomson’s decisions as a manager become inconsequential when so many of his relievers struggle with command. Gregory Soto, Kerkering, Kimbrel, and Alvarado all struggled to throw first-pitch strikes to the majority of batters they faced. The Phillies allowed fifteen walks in their first eight postseason games, but that number rose to nine in just two games in Arizona. Following the NLCS, Realmuto remarked on how falling behind in counts puts pressure on the pitchers and allows opposing hitters to capitalize on their mistakes. To counter this, Realmuto stated, “The best way to not get sped up is to not let guys on base.”
There was always a risk associated with relying on overpowering pitches from the bullpen. While difficult to hit when in the strike zone, command of these pitches can falter. “That’s the difference in the last two games from the first two games,” Realmuto explained about the NLCS. In the first two games, the Phillies managed to maintain favorable counts, allowing them to control the flow of the game. However, in the last two games, they fell behind too frequently, allowing the opposition to take advantage of their struggles to find the strike zone.
There was a greater burden placed on the high-leverage relievers due to the decision to exclude Taijuan Walker and Michael Lorenzen from Game 4, unless the game went to extra innings. Sánchez was chosen to start after Walker’s erratic performance in a simulated game earlier in the week. However, the lefty pitcher couldn’t maintain his changeup, and his prolonged time between outings likely affected his pitch control. As a result, the Phillies effectively had an 11-man pitching staff, as Walker and Lorenzen were deemed unreliable options. These decisions may have limited the Phillies’ flexibility and options in crucial moments of the game.
Moving forward, there are still uncertainties surrounding the pitching roster for Game 5. It’s possible that Ranger Suárez could be introduced to the bullpen, taking on a role that he filled last postseason. Ultimately, the Phillies need to find a way to improve their pitching performance, maintain control on the mound, and work towards favorable counts. In a pivotal Game 5, Wheeler must step up to the plate and carry the team, providing the spark they need to regain control of the series.
