A shutdown would force the government to pare back to only its most vital functions. The resulting disruptions are likely to be significant, especially if the stalemate persists for weeks, potentially dragging down the fragile U.S. economy while complicating many of the services on which millions of Americans and businesses rely.
Some federal programs, including Social Security and mail delivery, would be unaffected, because they are funded outside of the annual appropriations process on Capitol Hill. But many other government operations would be rendered inaccessible if funds expire, resulting in closed parks and passport offices and worrisome interruptions affecting federal housing, food, and health aid for the poor.
Caught in the middle are the nation’s roughly 2 million federal workers and its approximately 1.3 million active-duty troops. On Thursday morning, some agencies intend to start alerting many of these workers about the prospects of a funding lapse, which means they cannot be paid for as long as Congress fails to come to an agreement — though they would get paid back once any shutdown ends.
Members of the military are expected to helm their posts even without pay, as are a select group of civilian employees — such as bag-inspection agents at airports and federal law enforcement officials — whose jobs are considered essential to public safety or national security. But the Biden administration has yet to inform workers individually if they are going to be furloughed or exempted from a shutdown, adding to the anxieties of a political feud that has roiled the nation’s capital.
Michael Linden, a former top official at the White House Office of Management and Budget, said the early notices reflected a political reality: Unlike past spending battles that yielded an eleventh-hour deal, “the chances of a shutdown are much higher.”
“If you’re 48 hours out from a potential shutdown, but it’s very clear there’s a [deal] on its path, then you might not do that,” he said. “But if there isn’t, you are going to have to tell agencies to tell their teams, so people can start to plan.”
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