As the 2024 election approaches, Gen Z is expected to significantly increase its impact on the outcome. Non-partisan forecasts estimate that between 7 to 9 million more members of the diverse Gen Z generation will cast their ballots, potentially surpassing the number of predominantly white Baby Boomers and older generations who have historically made up the majority of voters. This generational shift presents a clear opportunity for Democrats who have consistently performed well among Millennials and Gen Z voters. However, an analysis of previously unpublished election data by Michael Podhorzer, the former political director for the AFL-CIO, suggests that the political impact of new Gen Z voters may be more complex than previously assumed.
Podhorzer’s analysis of Catalist data indicates that Gen Z voters tend to vote heavily Democratic in blue states and swing states, while surprisingly supporting Republicans in many red states. This Democratic lean in blue and purple states could present challenges for Republicans trying to win the White House with 270 Electoral College votes. But the Republican tilt of younger voters in red states could frustrate Democrats trying to break the GOP’s stronghold on those regions. Kristen Soltis Anderson, a GOP pollster, notes that the party may not be focused on the potential threat of a big surge of new Gen Z voters in 2024, as many Republicans believe young voters will not turn out for President Joe Biden. However, young people have consistently voted in large numbers over the past two elections, regardless of their feelings towards Biden.
The influence of Gen Z is set to rise in the 2024 election due to many of them aging into the electorate. Between the 2020 election and Election Day next year, an estimated 15.4 million eligible young people will have turned 18. In 2016, Gen Z accounted for just 2 percent of voters, but rose to 7.5 percent in 2020 and will potentially increase their share of the electorate to 13 percent in 2024, along with Millennials. The cultural identity of younger generations, which is more racially and ethnically diverse and less religious, predicts support for Democrats.
Despite Democrats’ consistent advantage among younger voters, Podhorzer’s analysis shows that their advantage remains subject to substantial geographic variation, reinforcing the nation’s electoral divisions rather than reconfiguring them. Democrats have consistently won Gen Z voters in reliably Democratic states, swing states, and some red states, but not by a large enough margin to secure those states. In short, the impact of Gen Z on the 2024 election may be more complex than initially predicted, presenting Democrats with new challenges and opportunities in navigating the political landscape.
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