As House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) concluded his press conference before the summer break in late July, he playfully criticized skeptical reporters who doubted the Republicans’ ability to pass legislation despite their unruly caucus. McCarthy confidently stated that the press corps consistently questioned their unity at the beginning of each week, only to be proven wrong by the end when the GOP majority secured wins on the House floor. He eagerly welcomed their questions on Monday through Wednesday, doubting their ability, but also looked forward to their questions on Thursday and Friday, inquiring about the following week. McCarthy was riding a wave of success as the House had just passed the first of twelve bills that funded various federal agencies’ day-to-day activities, particularly focusing on veterans and military project construction.
However, McCarthy’s boastful remark had a hint of emptiness. Despite their promises, the House did not address a bill funding the Agriculture Department that week. The failure of the agriculture funding bill can be attributed to disagreements between a faction of far-right House Republicans, including the House Freedom Caucus, and other party members who were less enthusiastic about cutting spending. This fundamental division explains why very few people believe that lawmakers can pass the remaining eleven funding bills by September 30, when the fiscal year ends. Even if McCarthy manages to rally the GOP members, the limited timeframe of only 12 days to pass 11 bills, combined with differences between the House and Senate, make the task nearly impossible. Consequently, Congress must either pass a stopgap bill to keep the government operational or face a government shutdown. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, anticipates the latter scenario due to dissension within Republican ranks.
Adding to the imminent gloom is the calendar. The House of Representatives is officially in recess from July 27 until September 12, with only a total of 12 days scheduled for the month. The Senate returns a week earlier, on September 5, but will only be in session for a few additional days, totaling 17. The critical factor contributing to pessimism is the deep-seated division highlighted by the House Freedom Caucus. This group, advocating for significantly reduced spending on federal agencies and programs, views the upcoming battle as an opportunity to curtail Washington’s spending addiction. The group declared on Twitter that they must revert funding levels for the federal bureaucracy to pre-pandemic figures and reverse years of reckless inflationary spending, citing Fitch Ratings’ recent downgrading of U.S. creditworthiness.
The debt limit deal reached in June aimed to minimize the likelihood of a shutdown. Both Democrats and Republicans agreed to cap annual spending bills at $1.59 trillion for the next year. However, House Republicans reneged on the agreement by asserting that the overall number was just a ceiling. They instead planned to allocate less, leaving the Democrats feeling betrayed. On the other hand, the Senate appears more unified, with Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), the chair and top Republican on the Appropriations Committee, respectively, agreeing to spend approximately $13.7 billion more than the debt deal’s caps, stating that the additional funds are necessary for emergencies. Hence, in addition to the time constraints, the House Republicans, Senate Democrats, and the White House must agree on whether the overall annual spending should adhere to the cap number in the debt deal, the lower House GOP figure, or the higher bipartisan figure proposed by the Senate committee.
The House’s ability to pass funding bills written by Republicans remains uncertain. Initially, House leaders intended to present the agriculture funding bill for consideration but abandoned the idea when they realized that the spending differences within the party could not be swiftly resolved. One major sticking point in that bill was its proposed cuts to WIC, a federal voucher program that assists pregnant women and young mothers in affording food. The liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cautioned that the bill would completely remove 650,000 to 750,000 beneficiaries from the program and reduce benefits for an additional 4.6 million individuals. Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), chairman of the panel responsible for funding the Environmental Protection Agency and the Interior Department, criticized hard-line Republicans for jeopardizing their party members by advocating such drastic cuts. He acknowledged that those bills would not become law as negotiations with the Senate and Biden administration were necessary.
McCarthy’s alternative solution would be to rely on Democrats to pass funding bills, but that would undermine his authority as Speaker and mirror the strategy that led to former Speaker John Boehner’s resignation. Nonetheless, both McCarthy and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) projected confidence, expressing hopes of avoiding a government shutdown. However, Rep. Simpson believes that a stopgap bill without a shutdown is more likely, prolonging the fight until December. At that point, the debt deal would introduce a game of fiscal chicken by reducing the 2024 funding total if the bills remain unfinished.
Simpson believes that Republicans can navigate this situation without resorting to a shutdown, as it has never been advantageous politically or in terms of policy. No matter whose fault it is, Republicans often bear the blame. This viewpoint is not shared by Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), who stated at a Freedom Caucus press conference that the government shutdown should not be feared since most of their activities are inherently detrimental. According to him, the majority of American people would not even notice if the government were temporarily shut down.
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