The Met Office has officially confirmed that last month, June, was the hottest June on record. According to provisional figures, the average mean temperature in the UK for June was 15.8°C, surpassing the previous record set in 1940 and 1976, which was 14.9°C. The Met Office conducted a rapid study and concluded that climate change played a significant role in these record-breaking temperatures. Paul Davies, Met Office Climate Extremes Principal Fellow and Chief Meteorologist, explained that the chances of June temperatures surpassing the previous record have at least doubled since the 1940s, attributing this to the warming of the Earth’s atmosphere caused by human-induced climate change.
The mean temperature for June 2023 in the UK reached 15.8°C, making it 2.5°C higher than the average temperature for June. Mark McCarthy, a science manager at the Met Office, stated that it was not only the hottest June on record in terms of mean temperature, but also in terms of average maximum and minimum temperature. McCarthy further explained that after a period of high pressure and average temperatures at the start of the month, warm and humid air influenced temperatures, resulting in the highest temperatures reaching 32.2°C. The persistence of warmth throughout the month was noteworthy, with temperatures often in the mid to high 20s Celsius, and occasionally even reaching the low 30s. In total, 72 counties experienced their hottest June on record, with temperatures exceeding the average by more than 2.5°C. Some of the counties include Orkney, Warwickshire, Surrey, Somerset, and Cornwall.
To determine the link between these record-breaking temperatures and climate change, the Met Office utilized the UK’s climate projections, known as UKCP18. These projections were used to compare the chances of surpassing the previous record temperature of 14.9°C during the period 1925-1955 with the period 1991-2020. The results indicated a difference in the frequency of such extremes depending on future emissions scenarios. Paul Davies emphasized that according to the UKCP18 climate projections, by the 2050s, the probability of surpassing the previous record temperature could be as high as around 50 percent, or occurring every other year. He also warned that the likelihood would further increase depending on greenhouse gas emissions, but could level off with mitigation efforts.
In addition to being the hottest June on record, June 2023 was also the sunniest since 1957 and the fourth sunniest overall. Rainfall was significantly lower than average, with only 52.2mm recorded, representing 68 percent of the usual amount for the month.
As we face the realities of climate change, it becomes evident that the ambitious goals set by the Paris Agreement are of utmost importance. The agreement, signed in 2015, aims to control and limit climate change, striving to keep the global average temperature increase below 2°C, with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Previous research has indicated that drier conditions could impact 25 percent of the world, highlighting the significance of the 1.5°C goal. The Paris Agreement also emphasizes the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible and for rapid reductions based on the best available science.
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